***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 77.3 46.1 42.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 0.8 1.9 10.0 78.5 50.5 44.2 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.0 5.2 9.1 75.4 47.2 41.2 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.2 10.3 76.2 42.2 39.5 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.3 1.5 10.2 77.2 41.8 40.0 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 1.3 3.3 13.0 80.7 49.0 43.1 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 0.8 2.2 10.3 81.3 52.2 45.7 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.7 10.4 12.4 85.4 48.2 43.8 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 0.5 1.2 11.2 85.5 48.5 44.2 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 1.1 2.6 12.3 86.1 48.0 43.9 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.3 2.7 10.4 80.0 43.7 42.0 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.7 10.8 83.6 49.6 44.3 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.1 11.1 75.3 44.6 40.7 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 1.3 3.9 12.1 82.1 53.6 43.3 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.7 10.1 78.0 51.2 41.6 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.9 10.7 77.5 43.4 41.7 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.4 10.0 82.7 53.7 45.3 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 1.0 2.7 13.8 87.0 49.8 44.2 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 1.2 2.7 9.7 76.4 48.5 43.1 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.2 16.3 83.4 43.5 42.3 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.8 9.8 81.7 47.6 42.9 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 0.5 1.1 9.7 77.9 48.9 43.0 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 0.8 1.8 9.8 76.4 47.9 42.8 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 0.8 2.8 11.5 82.0 51.7 43.0 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.9 10.8 76.2 40.4 40.3 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 0.7 1.9 11.6 79.4 49.4 42.9 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.6 2.5 10.5 76.6 43.6 42.3 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.7 2.8 10.2 77.2 47.5 40.8 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.1 5.3 14.9 85.7 48.0 43.5 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.1 1.4 9.7 76.1 48.1 43.4 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------