***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 67.4 44.7 41.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.8 5.5 56.1 36.1 33.7 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.9 7.1 6.8 66.6 45.2 40.6 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.7 8.5 7.3 69.5 44.1 41.4 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.4 7.2 8.2 77.2 49.0 43.9 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.8 5.2 8.5 76.4 46.0 43.4 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 4.0 5.6 57.7 37.0 35.7 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.9 15.7 8.2 70.8 44.2 41.2 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.0 8.4 78.0 49.5 44.0 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.1 9.7 9.2 79.5 50.3 44.6 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.3 4.8 7.7 74.9 47.4 43.0 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.4 6.8 65.9 41.8 39.5 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.0 6.2 8.6 76.4 47.0 43.4 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 5.7 9.8 7.3 58.6 36.8 34.4 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.3 0.8 4.1 41.4 33.7 29.8 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 6.6 7.4 68.7 42.6 40.0 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.7 5.6 5.1 54.3 34.4 33.4 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 9.4 9.2 71.9 47.3 41.8 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.2 4.9 5.6 56.1 36.3 33.9 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.5 7.6 8.6 58.0 39.2 35.7 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.5 5.0 7.7 74.5 48.7 43.4 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.8 5.0 5.0 50.4 31.5 30.7 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.7 5.7 6.1 56.5 36.7 34.9 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.1 8.0 66.9 45.4 39.5 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 9.5 4.1 9.0 78.5 48.0 45.8 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.2 3.6 7.0 59.7 40.6 37.7 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.6 6.2 8.4 74.6 46.2 43.9 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.4 2.3 5.7 55.7 38.1 35.0 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 11.3 9.1 65.5 43.6 38.9 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.2 5.8 59.4 39.0 36.0 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------