***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 10.0 -0.9 35.9 38.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 11.5 10.7 10.2 -0.5 40.2 41.7 9.7 11.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.1 10.6 10.3 -0.8 37.4 38.6 10.2 11.6 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 2.4 7.7 -1.4 33.1 33.0 2.4 4.1 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.2 8.3 -1.4 33.4 33.7 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 8.5 8.4 5.1 -2.6 20.6 22.7 9.0 10.3 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.4 10.0 -0.6 39.2 41.3 9.2 10.7 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.3 0.1 6.7 -1.2 35.9 35.3 0.0 0.8 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 12.6 10.3 9.3 -0.9 37.1 37.5 10.0 12.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.4 10.2 7.7 -1.1 36.4 35.9 10.1 11.9 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.5 10.6 8.0 -1.4 33.8 33.7 10.5 12.0 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.6 9.5 7.5 -1.4 33.1 33.2 9.5 11.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 10.2 9.9 6.4 -2.2 22.5 25.6 10.2 11.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.4 11.3 9.3 -0.8 38.9 39.7 10.9 11.9 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.5 10.5 8.5 -1.0 37.0 37.3 10.0 12.1 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 10.8 10.2 7.1 -1.9 26.2 28.6 10.4 12.0 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 10.7 10.1 10.0 -0.3 42.7 44.8 9.0 10.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.2 10.0 6.7 -1.3 35.0 34.6 9.8 11.7 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.6 10.5 10.4 -0.5 39.9 41.5 9.4 11.1 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.4 4.1 -1.5 34.1 33.2 5.2 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.5 10.7 9.9 -0.9 35.9 37.5 10.4 12.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 11.7 10.8 10.3 -0.2 43.0 45.5 10.1 11.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.2 11.3 10.4 -0.6 39.9 41.1 10.4 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.9 10.8 8.9 -1.0 36.9 37.6 10.5 11.4 13.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.0 9.7 8.5 -1.1 32.7 36.3 9.8 11.6 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 9.7 9.4 6.2 -2.1 23.5 25.8 9.7 11.1 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 10.1 9.1 -1.0 33.9 37.3 9.9 11.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.9 10.4 8.0 -1.5 32.2 32.6 10.5 12.4 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 5.6 5.6 -1.4 34.6 34.3 5.3 6.4 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.4 10.2 -0.7 39.0 40.3 9.7 11.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------