***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.8 -0.6 38.8 45.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.7 11.7 -0.6 39.8 44.9 11.4 12.4 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.4 11.9 -0.6 39.0 45.5 12.1 12.8 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.3 10.2 -0.6 43.2 45.5 3.6 5.0 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 11.0 12.2 10.5 -0.6 42.2 45.7 11.8 13.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 8.8 10.2 7.2 -1.8 32.9 37.0 10.2 12.1 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.8 11.5 11.5 -0.6 40.3 45.0 11.2 12.1 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.2 0.3 8.6 -0.7 43.7 44.7 -0.3 0.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 11.1 12.0 10.9 -0.5 41.3 46.3 11.8 13.0 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.7 9.4 -0.8 41.1 44.6 11.5 12.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.8 12.3 10.1 -0.6 44.0 45.9 11.8 13.1 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.0 9.6 -0.6 43.2 45.3 10.5 12.4 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 10.1 11.8 8.4 -1.3 37.4 39.7 11.2 13.0 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.5 10.7 -0.7 41.6 45.1 11.9 13.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 10.5 13.8 10.6 -0.4 48.0 46.7 12.8 13.8 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 10.8 12.3 9.4 -0.9 40.8 43.3 11.6 13.6 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.3 11.4 -0.6 42.8 45.1 10.4 11.8 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.5 8.3 -1.1 38.9 42.4 11.1 12.0 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 11.3 11.7 11.8 -0.6 39.6 45.0 11.3 12.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.7 5.4 -1.5 37.4 39.4 5.4 7.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 11.5 12.3 11.6 -0.6 39.8 46.1 12.0 13.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 11.5 12.4 11.6 -0.6 43.0 45.1 11.0 13.1 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 11.6 12.1 11.9 -0.6 39.7 45.2 11.8 12.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.7 12.2 10.5 -0.7 40.5 45.0 11.4 13.3 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 10.6 12.3 10.4 -0.6 39.1 45.4 12.2 12.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 9.3 11.4 8.3 -1.2 38.2 40.1 11.0 11.7 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 11.1 11.9 10.9 -0.7 38.7 45.0 11.7 12.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 10.6 13.7 10.4 -0.6 45.7 45.8 12.7 13.8 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.2 7.1 -1.2 37.8 41.7 5.9 7.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.4 11.8 -0.6 38.9 45.0 11.2 12.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------