***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2012.-18.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 -0.4 46.6 45.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.9 10.6 -0.3 45.1 46.6 9.9 11.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.3 10.9 -0.3 46.9 46.3 10.3 12.5 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.5 2.5 8.6 -0.9 42.8 42.9 1.3 4.3 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.2 9.1 -0.7 44.0 43.8 9.8 12.5 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.2 5.9 -1.9 33.8 35.3 8.8 10.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.0 10.6 10.4 -0.3 45.1 46.2 9.6 11.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.3 -0.2 7.5 -0.5 43.3 45.8 -0.8 0.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.4 9.8 -0.4 46.4 46.7 9.9 12.6 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 12.5 8.4 -0.5 44.0 45.6 9.8 12.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.3 8.9 -0.6 43.6 45.0 10.0 12.4 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.1 8.4 -0.6 42.6 45.2 9.4 11.6 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.3 11.5 7.1 -1.4 37.3 39.0 10.5 12.5 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.3 9.7 -0.3 43.9 46.3 10.3 13.0 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.4 11.5 9.2 -0.5 46.3 45.9 9.9 11.7 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 13.8 11.9 8.0 -1.1 39.6 41.4 10.8 12.8 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.1 10.4 -0.2 45.5 47.7 9.2 10.4 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 11.3 7.4 -0.7 41.0 44.3 10.2 12.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.3 10.8 -0.2 45.3 46.7 10.0 11.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.1 5.7 4.6 -1.0 39.5 42.8 4.9 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.6 10.4 -0.4 47.3 46.4 10.1 12.8 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 10.6 -0.1 45.0 48.1 10.0 11.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.6 10.9 -0.2 45.6 46.8 10.3 12.2 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.5 11.8 9.5 -0.4 43.3 46.2 10.5 12.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.9 9.1 -0.6 46.9 45.1 9.7 12.0 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.8 11.0 7.0 -1.3 38.1 40.0 10.0 11.7 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 9.4 11.3 9.7 -0.5 46.1 45.1 9.9 11.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.5 8.9 -0.8 42.8 43.3 9.3 12.8 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.3 6.2 -0.8 40.0 43.9 4.5 7.0 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.0 10.7 -0.3 45.5 46.0 9.8 11.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------