***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 9.5 -0.7 41.2 45.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.1 9.6 -0.5 44.1 47.6 7.4 10.7 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.3 9.8 9.7 -0.8 41.5 45.1 8.1 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.1 -0.3 6.9 -1.7 34.8 38.1 -0.4 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.5 9.2 7.4 -1.6 35.8 39.4 7.7 11.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.5 5.9 4.5 -2.6 29.6 32.2 7.6 10.0 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.0 9.4 -0.5 45.5 47.1 7.6 10.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.3 -0.5 6.1 -1.2 37.8 41.8 -1.2 0.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.1 8.5 -1.0 39.9 43.4 8.5 11.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.7 7.1 -1.1 39.3 42.9 8.1 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 7.6 9.8 7.3 -1.4 37.2 40.4 8.0 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.4 6.8 -1.5 35.9 39.3 8.8 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.0 10.4 5.6 -2.2 32.5 34.1 10.4 11.5 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 10.4 8.5 -0.9 44.7 44.8 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.7 7.4 7.6 -1.1 38.8 42.6 5.5 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.4 9.4 6.3 -2.1 33.5 35.6 9.1 11.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.3 9.8 9.4 -0.2 46.8 49.3 6.4 10.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 9.0 6.2 -1.2 39.7 42.3 7.4 11.0 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 9.8 9.8 -0.5 44.4 47.4 6.6 11.2 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.0 4.5 3.6 -1.2 38.7 41.5 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 9.8 9.2 -0.9 40.4 44.0 8.7 11.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.8 11.0 9.7 -0.2 48.4 49.9 6.3 11.2 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.3 9.8 -0.6 45.7 46.5 7.5 11.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.5 10.2 8.2 -1.0 41.0 43.7 9.4 11.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.2 8.8 7.9 -0.9 40.1 43.7 7.1 10.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.6 5.7 -1.9 30.0 35.3 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.5 9.9 8.6 -0.7 42.0 45.1 8.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.6 6.8 7.1 -1.8 35.4 37.8 6.2 11.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 4.4 5.0 -1.2 38.3 41.9 3.6 6.0 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.5 9.6 -0.6 43.1 46.6 7.4 10.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------