***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.2 -1.8 29.8 31.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 9.6 6.4 8.9 -0.7 35.5 37.8 6.1 8.8 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.3 8.6 -1.6 32.8 33.0 7.3 10.2 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 -0.5 -0.8 5.1 -2.6 26.9 28.8 0.2 3.7 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.2 -2.6 25.9 27.9 8.1 10.6 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 4.2 4.2 2.8 -4.2 17.4 18.8 7.4 10.0 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.4 7.1 8.6 -0.9 35.8 37.2 6.2 8.5 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 -2.1 -1.6 4.7 -2.4 27.6 29.1 -1.1 0.7 1.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 7.5 7.1 7.7 -1.9 30.5 32.0 7.6 11.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 7.1 7.2 5.9 -2.2 29.5 30.5 7.6 11.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 6.3 7.1 5.8 -2.9 24.9 26.5 8.0 11.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 6.1 6.7 5.1 -2.9 23.8 25.7 7.8 10.0 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 94 6 0 100 6.7 7.2 4.3 -4.0 18.1 19.2 8.2 10.6 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.1 7.0 8.4 -1.2 33.7 35.8 6.9 11.3 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.1 6.1 6.8 -2.0 33.5 33.9 5.9 8.6 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 92 8 0 100 6.7 7.4 4.8 -3.6 20.9 22.2 8.9 11.7 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 8.8 6.4 9.0 -0.1 37.5 42.4 5.9 8.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 7.1 6.5 5.0 -2.4 28.7 29.6 7.3 11.1 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 9.4 6.9 9.1 -0.8 35.4 37.4 6.7 8.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 2.9 3.5 2.8 -2.3 27.3 29.6 4.2 5.5 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 6.7 7.4 8.3 -1.9 29.9 31.6 7.7 11.0 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 9.8 7.1 9.5 0.1 39.1 44.1 6.6 9.4 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 10.7 7.8 9.2 -0.9 35.4 36.8 7.6 10.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.7 7.5 7.3 -1.9 31.6 32.2 7.6 10.6 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 4.9 6.8 6.5 -2.3 27.1 29.6 7.0 9.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 5.8 5.4 3.7 -3.7 15.7 18.5 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.5 7.2 -2.0 28.5 30.5 6.9 9.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 4.1 5.0 5.6 -2.9 26.5 28.0 8.2 9.6 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 2.8 2.6 4.1 -2.4 28.0 29.8 3.5 6.4 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.4 6.5 8.7 -1.1 34.7 35.6 6.5 9.6 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------