***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2012.-25.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 2.7 -0.2 44.6 47.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.7 2.2 2.7 0.1 47.9 50.5 1.2 2.4 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.1 2.6 0.0 44.6 49.1 3.5 4.3 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.2 0.6 -0.5 43.5 44.5 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 0.1 1.0 0.7 -0.4 44.7 45.6 0.2 1.8 3.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -2.3 -1.3 30.1 33.0 -0.5 1.4 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.6 2.7 0.0 48.2 49.8 1.2 2.7 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -3.9 -5.5 -1.0 -0.4 42.7 44.1 -7.0 -5.0 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 0.6 2.6 1.3 -0.2 47.1 47.9 1.5 2.7 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.0 -0.3 -0.3 45.4 45.8 1.5 2.2 4.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.8 2.0 0.2 -0.4 45.0 44.9 1.3 2.0 4.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.5 42.2 43.5 -0.3 1.5 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.3 -1.0 -0.9 35.8 37.8 1.0 2.0 3.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 3.6 3.2 1.2 0.0 47.9 49.7 2.2 3.2 3.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.1 1.1 -0.4 44.2 44.9 1.3 2.5 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.1 -0.3 -0.6 40.4 41.8 1.2 3.0 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 1.0 2.5 2.7 0.2 51.4 51.4 1.6 2.4 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 1.4 0.8 -1.2 -0.4 43.7 44.8 0.1 1.1 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.4 2.7 0.1 48.3 50.8 1.4 2.6 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -4.1 -2.9 -3.3 -0.7 37.0 40.4 -3.1 -1.8 -0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.8 2.1 -0.2 44.5 47.5 1.5 3.0 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.7 2.7 0.3 51.9 52.8 1.2 1.7 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.0 2.5 0.2 48.5 51.0 1.0 2.2 4.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 2.7 2.0 0.9 -0.1 46.6 48.5 1.8 2.2 3.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 2.9 1.9 1.2 -0.4 41.9 45.6 1.0 2.4 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 0.0 0.4 -0.9 -0.9 33.7 37.8 0.4 2.2 3.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.9 2.3 2.0 -0.3 43.5 46.6 1.5 2.7 3.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 2.0 0.8 0.8 -0.4 43.8 45.0 -0.5 1.4 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -2.7 -1.1 -2.1 -0.6 41.6 42.7 -2.0 -0.5 0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 1.4 2.8 2.8 0.0 45.9 49.9 1.3 3.1 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------