***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2012.-11.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 0.2 -1.4 32.8 34.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 0.9 -0.6 0.3 -1.0 35.7 39.4 -0.9 0.3 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.6 0.1 -1.2 34.1 35.8 1.5 2.1 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -6.8 -5.4 -2.4 -1.8 27.8 28.5 -4.6 -4.0 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -1.6 30.9 31.2 -1.5 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -3.5 -4.3 -2.0 23.8 27.6 -2.4 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -1.3 -0.5 0.3 -1.1 33.3 38.7 -0.5 0.4 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -9.2 -8.7 -3.3 -1.4 29.5 33.4 -8.4 -6.6 -4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 1.4 -0.3 -1.2 -1.2 34.5 36.3 -0.4 0.8 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 1.1 -0.4 -2.5 -1.2 33.2 35.6 -0.4 0.5 2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 -1.9 -0.9 -2.5 -1.7 29.6 30.3 -0.4 0.5 1.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -1.8 25.6 29.6 -2.3 -0.3 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -3.4 -1.9 24.3 27.7 -1.1 0.0 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 1.6 0.4 -1.2 -1.2 34.4 35.8 0.2 1.0 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 -1.1 -1.3 -1.9 -1.7 29.2 29.8 -1.0 1.1 2.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -0.6 -1.0 -3.2 -2.1 24.2 26.1 -0.5 0.9 2.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 -1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.8 38.3 42.0 -0.7 0.6 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.5 -3.3 -1.4 28.3 34.8 -2.1 -1.2 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 1.0 0.1 0.3 -1.0 35.5 38.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -6.4 -7.1 -5.1 -1.3 27.5 36.0 -6.5 -4.1 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 1.4 -0.6 -0.4 -1.3 34.1 35.7 -0.6 1.1 1.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 0.8 -0.1 0.6 -0.7 40.8 42.7 -0.9 0.2 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 0.9 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 35.3 37.4 -0.6 0.4 1.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 0.9 -0.7 -1.6 -1.3 31.7 34.6 -0.6 0.4 1.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 1.2 -0.4 -1.3 -1.4 33.1 34.0 -0.4 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.8 -1.5 27.9 32.2 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -1.4 32.9 35.1 -0.6 0.8 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 -2.8 -2.8 -2.4 -2.0 26.3 27.2 -2.0 -0.4 0.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -4.8 -5.3 -4.3 -1.6 25.4 33.0 -4.3 -2.1 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -0.9 0.0 0.3 -1.1 34.0 37.5 0.0 0.5 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------