***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 42.1 61.4 76.5 162.6 91.7 81.4 16.0 22.9 34.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 46.5 66.3 65.7 155.9 84.7 80.4 15.3 28.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 55.2 97.7 74.1 159.1 89.2 80.7 21.5 32.8 44.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 56.7 66.8 83.6 156.1 87.4 80.1 26.8 36.9 54.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 52.7 63.8 76.0 143.2 82.2 76.1 29.6 35.8 50.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 43.5 51.2 74.7 132.3 81.6 71.9 22.9 29.5 47.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 37.2 45.4 64.0 152.9 83.9 79.3 15.7 26.4 34.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 77.5 83.9 73.5 125.0 73.7 67.6 49.0 64.3 78.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 45.3 55.8 76.5 143.6 81.8 76.5 22.7 31.3 39.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 55.3 64.4 75.7 128.6 75.1 69.3 28.3 34.2 47.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 48.7 59.4 71.1 134.7 78.4 72.4 21.8 27.9 45.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 47.1 51.1 68.2 129.8 76.6 70.2 28.4 35.0 41.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 47.3 50.7 72.0 125.4 75.3 67.6 27.0 37.8 44.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 67.6 79.3 82.7 136.9 81.9 73.9 36.6 46.6 65.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 62.8 82.6 84.4 172.7 91.1 82.8 16.7 35.6 58.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 44.2 50.1 71.8 134.6 78.8 71.8 24.0 33.7 41.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 39.0 44.5 60.5 145.9 81.4 76.6 16.1 24.3 36.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 47.0 47.3 79.2 125.7 72.8 67.7 27.4 34.5 41.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 39.9 66.3 68.0 156.5 86.6 80.7 23.6 31.2 39.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 45.4 46.6 95.7 126.3 71.7 67.3 24.9 33.3 42.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 45.4 65.5 76.6 154.1 86.9 79.9 19.0 29.2 43.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 48.0 55.7 64.3 147.5 83.3 77.7 19.4 26.3 43.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 47.1 61.7 71.2 153.1 87.9 79.5 20.1 27.6 35.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 63.5 78.7 77.6 137.7 81.2 73.5 35.0 40.9 57.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 50.9 72.5 84.0 155.2 90.1 80.5 17.3 23.7 41.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 42.4 46.0 71.6 127.3 74.9 68.7 23.0 33.5 40.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 48.0 69.5 79.0 157.3 89.8 80.3 16.7 27.6 35.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 51.4 64.2 79.8 156.6 86.6 79.1 17.1 26.1 45.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 73.7 70.3 84.0 124.3 72.6 66.7 41.7 59.8 67.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 42.2 55.3 69.2 160.7 88.0 81.4 15.6 31.8 37.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------