***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.7 8.9 14.4 126.3 68.5 56.3 1.6 3.8 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.1 9.9 13.6 133.1 70.1 58.8 0.9 2.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.8 14.4 126.0 68.5 57.2 3.5 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.6 10.0 13.9 107.1 61.1 53.8 4.5 6.8 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.0 13.3 14.1 108.1 63.3 55.6 4.6 7.4 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.9 6.6 13.7 95.2 52.4 50.8 2.3 6.5 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.0 9.3 13.5 133.5 69.1 59.2 1.5 4.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 13.7 14.3 96.8 56.0 51.8 6.6 11.2 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.1 15.4 114.0 66.3 57.2 2.6 5.8 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 12.2 15.9 105.9 60.5 54.7 3.4 6.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.2 12.9 99.6 58.5 53.7 2.4 7.2 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.8 12.0 92.8 55.0 51.1 2.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.2 13.3 93.5 51.1 50.7 4.8 7.2 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.5 15.9 18.2 119.6 67.0 57.3 4.7 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.6 8.1 13.5 109.8 64.3 53.6 2.0 4.9 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.8 8.9 12.7 96.6 55.2 52.1 2.7 5.6 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 12.7 13.8 137.2 71.7 59.1 2.7 6.8 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 13.3 17.8 108.9 61.8 54.6 4.3 6.6 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.9 13.8 131.1 70.0 58.7 1.2 5.8 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.8 7.2 19.0 100.6 53.9 51.9 4.1 7.0 9.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.9 14.3 116.4 66.8 56.0 3.5 6.1 8.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.6 12.9 14.2 134.6 70.0 59.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.7 11.0 14.3 126.8 68.9 58.3 2.4 4.6 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.0 13.8 16.8 116.9 65.3 55.9 4.5 10.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.5 9.8 14.9 115.4 62.1 55.1 2.4 4.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.1 12.0 86.0 48.6 47.9 2.5 5.4 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.5 14.8 122.5 65.0 55.7 1.7 4.6 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.0 13.2 104.5 60.7 52.8 0.9 4.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.9 17.0 18.6 106.7 59.7 53.5 6.1 10.9 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.6 13.9 132.7 69.1 58.6 1.6 3.3 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------