***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 4.3 4.8 17.9 141.2 75.2 63.5 0.5 2.4 3.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.0 6.8 15.4 141.3 75.5 64.4 1.1 2.5 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 7.5 7.8 17.4 138.3 75.4 62.3 1.9 4.5 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.1 17.3 118.8 68.0 55.4 3.1 5.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.8 8.2 17.6 122.2 70.4 57.2 1.4 3.5 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.4 16.7 108.4 63.9 54.8 2.2 3.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.6 6.3 15.6 143.6 76.0 64.9 0.8 2.3 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 16.0 16.9 110.5 65.0 54.1 10.4 12.4 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.4 9.9 18.6 125.9 70.8 58.8 2.0 4.9 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 15.0 18.5 117.6 68.4 56.2 3.8 5.9 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.3 15.8 114.0 66.0 54.5 1.9 4.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.1 15.0 109.9 64.4 53.6 2.5 3.9 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.6 17.0 111.9 65.5 53.9 3.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 10.6 11.2 21.0 129.9 71.8 61.4 2.7 4.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.9 16.4 121.1 70.3 55.0 0.0 1.3 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.0 15.9 111.3 64.9 53.9 1.8 3.8 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 5.1 6.2 15.5 147.4 77.4 65.8 0.5 2.8 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.1 19.6 117.2 69.2 57.0 1.9 5.3 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 7.0 9.0 15.8 139.7 74.6 63.5 0.8 2.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 8.1 22.2 113.6 68.1 55.3 3.5 6.3 7.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.1 7.5 18.4 134.9 73.1 61.6 0.9 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.0 8.6 16.3 146.9 76.5 64.7 0.2 2.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.7 7.3 17.1 137.5 73.0 62.1 0.4 2.2 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.6 8.8 19.2 126.6 71.9 59.8 2.6 4.8 8.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 6.3 7.3 20.1 137.4 74.8 62.6 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.4 15.6 106.8 60.6 53.6 1.1 3.0 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.3 18.8 138.4 75.1 63.1 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.2 4.9 16.0 113.0 65.9 53.4 0.6 2.4 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.2 14.9 20.1 114.8 67.7 56.1 6.0 10.0 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.5 15.9 141.0 75.8 63.9 0.9 3.0 4.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------