***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.7 9.3 20.5 159.7 79.0 66.3 1.1 5.7 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 6.6 9.1 17.6 149.5 77.8 65.3 0.7 1.4 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 10.2 15.3 20.4 157.6 80.8 66.8 1.0 5.9 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 13.2 15.9 20.7 144.5 76.7 64.3 3.4 5.8 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.1 14.0 20.7 143.5 76.2 65.5 1.3 4.8 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.0 12.4 19.7 126.8 70.4 60.4 0.3 2.8 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 7.3 9.7 16.9 146.5 75.3 66.1 0.4 2.1 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.4 21.9 19.9 120.7 69.4 60.1 6.7 13.8 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 9.7 11.9 19.6 133.0 74.1 61.2 0.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 10.5 19.5 120.2 68.9 59.0 0.6 4.5 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.9 19.6 130.6 73.5 62.1 0.7 4.9 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.6 9.8 18.9 127.0 72.5 61.3 0.0 4.3 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.3 19.2 120.2 66.4 57.9 0.9 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.6 23.8 21.9 127.8 72.2 59.8 0.8 4.6 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.1 14.2 19.3 149.0 77.0 64.2 1.1 3.4 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.9 11.2 19.9 135.5 73.2 63.0 1.4 5.3 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 6.0 6.5 15.7 134.1 73.0 63.4 0.4 1.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 12.4 20.7 117.2 67.0 58.3 0.9 4.5 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 11.6 17.8 18.3 150.7 79.4 64.6 0.8 2.9 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 4.4 8.7 27.4 121.4 68.8 61.1 0.5 3.0 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 10.5 15.4 20.2 145.7 78.0 64.3 1.0 2.2 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 7.5 9.8 17.4 140.7 77.5 64.3 0.6 2.0 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.4 15.9 19.3 145.3 78.3 62.7 0.3 2.3 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.0 22.1 21.0 132.1 73.4 61.4 1.2 4.7 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 7.0 10.0 23.4 155.0 79.5 67.5 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.7 11.0 20.0 125.7 71.3 61.5 0.4 2.2 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 7.8 10.2 21.5 155.2 78.6 66.0 1.1 4.4 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.7 11.9 20.1 149.0 78.4 65.3 1.5 3.5 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.2 17.5 23.4 119.6 68.0 59.6 2.0 6.4 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.3 13.0 18.8 157.5 79.3 66.7 0.5 1.7 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------