***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 16.1 28.4 23.6 234.6 91.8 86.3 1.1 5.9 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 18.7 24.4 19.1 206.8 87.3 81.1 4.3 9.1 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 20.9 34.7 22.0 227.5 90.5 85.1 3.8 6.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 19.4 42.5 31.7 271.2 94.8 92.1 2.8 12.4 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 20.2 30.3 23.6 211.2 90.7 85.8 5.1 8.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.3 27.1 24.5 222.7 92.1 86.9 4.0 5.9 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 18.6 24.6 18.0 192.7 85.2 78.6 1.4 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 23.7 30.3 22.5 182.1 85.2 79.4 8.8 14.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 18.6 25.5 22.8 223.6 91.7 87.0 2.7 5.2 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 17.1 23.6 21.7 184.1 85.2 80.2 5.0 8.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 13.3 20.3 22.9 207.5 89.1 84.7 2.2 5.4 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 15.0 26.0 22.2 202.1 88.9 83.1 3.1 5.5 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 16.8 20.1 22.5 186.3 85.4 81.1 3.2 7.5 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 23.4 31.2 21.5 181.8 84.1 78.0 6.3 11.9 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 29.5 49.7 35.2 349.2 95.7 94.5 0.8 8.4 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 15.3 24.3 23.3 207.6 88.3 84.3 1.9 8.4 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 16.9 21.5 15.6 168.5 81.1 74.3 5.5 7.8 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 13.8 17.6 21.2 172.5 83.1 76.9 5.4 8.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 20.1 30.5 19.9 213.7 88.1 82.5 4.0 6.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 13.4 20.7 27.1 186.1 85.3 76.8 4.0 7.6 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 24.9 32.3 23.7 238.0 92.3 87.5 2.8 5.6 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 14.5 17.6 16.4 171.1 81.8 75.7 5.6 10.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 15.6 23.6 20.5 215.7 87.8 82.8 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 18.5 27.5 20.7 188.1 85.6 79.5 5.9 8.6 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 23.4 35.8 25.6 223.0 92.3 86.1 1.4 3.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 20.5 25.1 24.0 204.4 90.2 83.9 2.7 8.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 14.4 27.2 23.9 223.0 91.6 85.0 1.4 6.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 17.4 33.0 30.5 286.1 93.2 91.4 1.9 8.1 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 23.0 29.5 21.9 168.0 82.2 75.1 7.6 11.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 21.4 32.5 20.6 220.0 89.1 83.5 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------