***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 7.4 6.4 6.6 -3.5 10.2 13.8 9.9 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 94 6 0 100 7.4 6.6 6.5 -3.6 9.0 12.2 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 89 11 0 100 8.2 7.1 7.1 -3.4 10.4 15.0 9.8 11.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 0.1 -2.0 3.4 -4.1 9.7 12.3 2.0 3.9 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 8.8 8.0 5.8 -3.0 13.7 18.5 9.8 11.7 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 8.5 8.5 5.1 -1.7 25.3 30.2 8.7 10.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 7.0 6.5 6.6 -3.5 10.0 12.9 8.6 10.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -0.8 -0.9 5.1 -2.1 22.4 26.3 -0.3 0.7 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 9.1 8.0 6.6 -2.9 13.7 19.2 9.9 12.2 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 9.1 8.6 5.7 -2.4 19.1 24.0 10.0 12.0 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 9.1 8.5 6.2 -2.6 17.7 21.6 10.3 12.0 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 8.7 8.5 5.9 -2.2 20.4 24.7 9.4 10.7 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 9.6 9.6 5.9 -2.1 21.9 26.1 10.1 11.7 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 8.6 6.9 6.5 -3.1 11.0 19.3 10.7 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 6.0 3.5 4.1 -4.7 8.0 9.7 9.9 11.7 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 9.9 9.4 5.8 -2.5 18.7 22.4 10.3 11.9 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 6.7 5.6 6.3 -3.6 8.3 11.5 8.4 10.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 9.1 8.7 5.5 -2.1 22.3 26.8 9.8 11.8 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 92 8 0 100 7.5 6.6 6.7 -3.6 9.1 13.0 8.9 11.1 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.8 4.6 3.7 -1.6 27.4 31.1 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 8.7 7.2 7.0 -3.2 11.8 17.0 10.2 11.9 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 7.6 6.2 6.5 -3.6 8.5 12.2 9.5 11.3 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 8.2 7.3 7.0 -3.5 9.4 14.8 9.9 11.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 8.7 7.7 6.7 -2.7 15.4 21.2 10.3 11.8 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 91 9 0 100 7.5 6.1 5.3 -3.5 11.0 14.9 9.5 11.4 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 9.5 9.2 5.5 -1.6 22.9 29.8 9.7 10.9 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 7.9 6.9 6.3 -3.3 11.2 15.5 9.4 11.0 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 6.6 3.7 4.0 -4.1 10.5 13.0 10.2 11.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 4.6 4.3 5.0 -1.9 24.8 28.8 5.4 6.5 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 7.4 6.9 6.6 -3.6 9.6 12.7 9.0 10.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------