***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 11.1 12.6 10.9 -0.6 43.9 47.4 10.9 13.0 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 11.0 11.5 10.7 -0.8 41.9 46.2 11.0 12.4 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.9 11.3 -0.6 42.0 47.5 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.0 3.9 8.4 -0.9 42.3 45.6 2.0 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.6 9.5 -0.5 45.8 48.0 10.9 13.0 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.8 8.0 -0.1 52.4 51.4 9.2 11.5 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.1 10.7 -0.8 41.9 45.9 10.6 12.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.1 0.8 8.6 0.1 50.3 52.3 -0.7 0.8 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.0 10.1 -0.4 46.0 48.6 11.1 12.5 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.6 12.7 9.2 -0.1 48.6 51.0 10.6 12.8 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.9 9.6 -0.3 47.8 49.8 10.7 12.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 9.2 12.2 9.3 -0.1 49.3 50.9 9.2 12.3 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.0 12.4 8.6 -0.1 50.4 50.8 10.2 12.3 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.3 12.6 10.1 -0.5 44.7 48.9 11.6 12.9 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.4 12.0 9.0 -1.0 40.9 45.5 11.2 14.3 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.6 13.0 9.1 -0.3 48.7 49.6 10.8 13.0 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 10.0 10.8 10.5 -0.9 41.9 45.3 10.0 11.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.1 9.0 0.0 49.1 51.8 10.3 12.1 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 11.0 11.8 10.9 -0.7 41.9 46.9 11.1 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 8.8 7.3 6.5 0.3 53.6 53.8 5.1 7.2 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.3 10.7 -0.6 43.8 47.6 11.2 12.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 13.2 11.8 10.6 -0.8 41.9 46.0 11.1 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 11.1 11.9 11.2 -0.6 41.7 47.8 11.6 12.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.2 12.5 10.1 -0.4 44.9 49.4 11.5 12.7 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.3 9.3 -0.7 43.4 46.9 10.9 13.1 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.5 12.1 8.5 0.0 52.2 51.9 9.4 11.8 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 10.9 12.0 10.2 -0.6 44.6 47.4 11.2 12.7 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 10.7 12.6 8.7 -0.9 43.0 46.3 11.4 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.5 7.2 8.2 0.1 51.7 52.7 5.6 7.1 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.4 10.8 -0.7 42.1 46.5 10.7 12.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------