***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.1 10.6 9.4 -0.6 40.1 45.4 9.9 11.4 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.3 9.1 -0.9 37.7 43.2 9.8 11.5 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.8 9.8 -0.6 41.2 46.0 10.0 12.4 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 1.2 1.4 6.5 -1.2 33.8 41.2 1.2 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.4 8.4 -0.1 44.7 49.5 10.2 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.0 7.4 0.9 56.3 57.0 8.7 10.9 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 9.3 9.9 9.1 -0.8 37.5 43.6 9.4 10.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.4 2.1 7.6 0.7 54.8 55.2 -0.8 0.5 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.3 9.1 0.1 47.5 50.9 9.8 12.5 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.9 8.3 0.5 52.7 53.9 9.9 12.6 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.5 12.8 8.6 0.3 49.2 52.8 9.9 12.8 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.1 8.5 0.6 53.4 54.9 9.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.8 8.0 0.8 54.1 56.6 10.5 12.6 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.3 12.6 8.8 -0.2 46.4 49.2 10.5 13.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 8.2 9.4 6.9 -1.6 28.8 37.9 10.3 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 13.6 12.9 8.3 0.4 50.3 53.7 10.3 12.9 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.7 8.9 -0.9 36.9 43.0 9.3 10.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.7 8.1 0.6 55.1 54.6 9.7 12.5 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.3 9.3 -0.8 38.5 43.9 10.2 11.7 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.2 5.7 0.8 57.3 56.2 5.5 6.9 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.7 9.5 -0.3 43.3 48.0 10.3 12.7 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.3 9.0 -0.9 36.7 43.6 9.8 11.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.9 9.6 -0.7 41.6 45.6 10.8 11.9 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.7 9.0 0.0 49.4 50.6 10.3 12.7 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 8.9 10.2 7.7 -0.7 39.3 44.9 9.6 11.9 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.0 7.7 0.8 54.2 56.8 9.9 11.7 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 9.3 10.8 8.8 -0.5 40.9 45.9 9.8 11.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 8.5 10.6 6.9 -1.0 35.1 42.7 10.2 12.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.9 7.3 0.7 56.5 55.1 4.4 7.2 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.5 10.1 9.2 -0.8 37.9 43.7 9.8 11.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------