***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.8 7.6 -2.1 27.7 36.2 7.6 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 6.2 6.8 7.5 -2.2 25.9 35.1 7.2 11.0 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.1 8.4 -1.6 32.3 40.0 8.2 11.8 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -0.6 -1.4 4.0 -2.8 25.7 29.6 0.7 3.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 10.9 7.3 -0.9 40.6 44.4 8.0 11.6 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.7 6.8 0.4 54.1 54.0 7.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 6.3 6.5 7.5 -2.1 26.0 35.5 6.8 10.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 1.5 0.8 6.5 -0.1 48.2 50.8 -0.7 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.1 8.3 -0.8 42.1 45.4 9.1 11.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.4 7.3 -0.3 46.9 49.4 8.2 11.6 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.1 8.0 -0.5 45.0 48.0 8.0 11.6 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.7 10.7 7.4 -0.1 46.9 50.4 8.7 11.2 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 12.3 11.6 7.8 0.1 49.4 52.7 9.1 11.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.7 10.1 8.2 -0.8 41.8 45.7 8.5 11.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 4.7 4.0 4.3 -4.2 17.6 20.1 5.7 11.0 13.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.0 7.5 -0.3 45.5 49.1 9.3 12.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 5.9 5.8 7.3 -2.1 26.2 35.0 6.7 10.5 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.0 7.1 0.1 51.1 52.2 8.0 10.8 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 6.5 6.8 7.8 -2.0 28.1 36.7 7.3 11.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.7 6.4 5.0 0.3 51.8 54.2 4.9 6.3 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.7 8.6 -1.2 39.4 43.0 8.8 11.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 6.3 6.6 7.6 -1.9 27.9 36.4 6.7 11.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.7 8.2 8.3 -1.6 33.2 39.5 8.2 11.9 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.6 10.8 8.5 -0.5 44.9 48.3 9.0 11.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.0 6.4 -2.0 30.5 36.3 7.4 11.4 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.5 6.8 0.4 52.5 54.0 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.3 7.3 -1.8 30.4 37.9 8.1 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 6.2 4.9 4.7 -2.9 26.1 29.6 6.9 11.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 6.7 6.2 6.4 0.2 52.3 53.3 4.5 6.1 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 6.4 6.9 7.5 -2.1 26.1 35.6 7.2 10.9 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------