***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 4.0 -1.6 -1.3 -10.7 0.1 1.1 6.0 10.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 3.3 -1.9 -1.1 -10.7 0.1 1.2 4.9 8.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 4.6 -1.6 -1.0 -10.8 0.2 1.8 6.9 10.1 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -2.4 -8.0 -5.2 -11.5 0.0 0.6 0.2 2.7 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 3.9 -0.7 -2.2 -10.3 0.1 1.7 7.3 10.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 4.1 1.1 -1.6 -8.1 3.8 4.7 7.0 9.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 3.1 -1.7 -0.7 -10.1 0.5 1.5 5.5 8.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -2.9 -5.1 -2.2 -8.9 2.1 3.6 -1.1 0.6 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 5.0 -0.1 -1.1 -10.3 0.5 1.9 7.3 11.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 5.0 0.5 -1.9 -9.7 1.6 3.2 6.7 10.5 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 4.6 -0.4 -1.4 -10.1 0.2 2.6 7.2 10.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 5.2 1.1 -1.7 -9.1 1.3 3.4 7.6 9.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 5.7 1.5 -0.7 -9.0 2.0 3.9 7.7 10.4 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 4.8 -1.3 -1.4 -10.8 0.7 2.9 6.5 10.5 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 2.2 -2.2 -3.7 -12.1 0.0 0.4 5.0 8.4 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 5.8 0.8 -1.9 -9.9 0.6 2.9 8.4 10.7 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 3.0 -2.1 -1.4 -10.6 0.3 1.1 5.0 7.5 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 5.5 0.8 -2.1 -9.3 2.8 4.0 6.8 10.1 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 3.3 -2.4 -1.1 -10.9 0.0 1.5 5.5 8.8 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 1.8 -0.9 -2.5 -7.7 3.7 5.4 3.6 5.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 4.3 -0.7 -0.7 -10.6 0.2 1.8 7.3 10.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 3.4 -2.2 -1.3 -10.8 0.0 1.3 5.3 9.2 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 3.7 -1.3 -1.1 -10.9 0.1 2.1 6.9 9.5 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 5.4 0.3 -0.9 -10.1 1.5 3.1 7.2 10.6 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 3.4 -1.1 -2.1 -10.5 0.0 1.1 6.4 8.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 5.1 1.8 -1.0 -7.5 2.2 4.3 8.3 10.4 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 4.1 -1.2 -1.2 -10.1 0.2 1.4 7.1 9.4 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 2.3 -2.9 -4.3 -11.7 0.1 0.9 6.5 8.7 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 1.4 -1.0 -2.1 -8.7 3.2 4.6 3.4 6.4 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 3.6 -1.4 -1.1 -10.7 0.0 1.3 5.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------