***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 -1.5 -2.4 -1.7 -2.9 11.5 16.1 -0.2 1.4 2.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 96 4 0 100 -2.0 -2.7 -1.9 -3.1 9.0 13.2 -0.5 0.4 1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 0.9 -0.1 -1.6 -2.9 10.2 14.8 1.5 2.9 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 -5.8 -6.2 -4.6 -3.1 12.4 14.8 -4.3 -3.4 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 -2.3 -2.7 -3.6 -2.6 15.3 18.3 -1.0 0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 -2.2 -2.4 -5.1 -1.6 25.2 29.0 -1.7 -0.4 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 94 6 0 100 -1.6 -2.3 -1.8 -2.9 10.2 14.4 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -8.1 -7.7 -5.2 -1.8 22.5 26.0 -7.2 -6.2 -5.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 -0.7 -1.1 -3.3 -2.5 15.0 18.2 -0.2 1.1 2.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 -4.6 -2.1 19.5 22.7 -0.3 1.0 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 86 14 0 100 -1.4 -1.6 -4.1 -2.4 17.3 20.6 -0.4 0.8 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -4.3 -1.9 21.5 25.8 -1.6 -0.1 0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 -1.3 -1.6 -4.2 -1.6 22.5 28.7 -0.3 0.7 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 0.0 -0.4 -3.7 -2.7 13.3 17.1 0.4 1.3 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 -3.7 -3.2 12.0 13.6 0.3 1.2 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 -0.4 -0.6 -4.4 -2.2 18.8 22.6 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 -1.3 -2.6 -2.2 -3.3 8.7 11.8 -0.2 1.2 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 -2.7 -2.8 -5.2 -2.1 20.3 23.1 -1.9 -0.9 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 -1.6 -2.5 -2.0 -3.1 9.0 13.1 -0.3 0.9 1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 -6.2 -5.6 -6.2 -1.5 25.0 29.1 -5.0 -3.5 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.3 -2.8 12.2 16.2 -0.4 1.0 1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 -1.5 -3.2 -2.3 -3.3 8.0 11.5 -0.3 0.6 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 -1.8 -2.3 -2.1 -2.9 10.0 13.9 -0.7 0.6 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 -0.9 -1.2 -3.7 -2.5 14.8 18.3 -0.5 0.8 1.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 88 12 0 100 -1.4 -1.9 -2.8 -2.8 15.2 17.6 -0.4 0.9 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -4.0 -1.2 27.1 33.1 -0.3 0.6 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -2.7 15.0 18.4 -0.3 1.4 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 -2.6 -3.3 -4.5 -3.2 12.1 14.3 -1.5 -0.3 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 -3.7 -3.9 -5.7 -1.9 21.6 26.1 -3.7 -2.2 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 -1.5 -2.3 -1.8 -3.0 9.8 14.0 -0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------