***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.3 1.6 1.8 -0.3 42.4 48.8 1.3 2.0 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 0.0 1.3 1.6 -0.5 41.3 47.3 0.8 1.6 3.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.9 3.1 1.9 -0.4 41.2 47.6 3.0 3.6 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -3.1 -0.9 -0.3 43.9 47.7 -3.4 -2.3 -0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -0.3 1.1 -0.3 -0.1 45.4 50.1 -0.3 1.2 2.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 1.3 1.3 -2.1 0.5 52.7 55.9 -0.9 0.8 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.6 1.7 -0.5 40.9 47.7 0.9 2.1 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -4.5 -5.9 -2.2 0.3 48.4 54.0 -7.1 -5.6 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 0.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 45.5 50.5 0.9 2.1 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 0.4 1.4 -1.4 0.2 47.5 52.3 1.1 1.6 3.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 2.4 1.6 -0.9 0.2 47.4 52.6 0.7 1.7 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.2 -1.4 0.4 48.5 55.0 -0.6 1.3 2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.8 -1.6 0.5 52.2 56.5 0.5 1.7 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.1 -0.4 -0.3 42.1 48.5 1.8 2.4 4.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 2.2 0.1 -0.4 41.9 47.2 1.2 2.7 4.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.7 -1.2 0.3 50.0 54.4 0.8 2.7 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.2 1.6 -0.6 40.9 46.5 0.8 1.9 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -0.6 0.5 -2.2 0.2 49.3 52.3 -0.4 0.5 1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 0.2 1.5 1.6 -0.5 41.4 46.9 0.8 2.1 4.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -1.9 -2.5 -3.7 0.4 50.7 53.9 -3.4 -2.5 -1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.3 1.8 1.2 -0.2 42.0 48.8 1.4 2.1 3.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.1 1.1 1.2 -0.7 40.3 45.2 0.0 1.7 3.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.1 1.4 -0.4 42.4 47.1 0.9 1.6 3.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 0.5 1.4 -0.4 -0.1 44.5 49.5 1.2 1.7 3.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.2 0.4 -0.3 42.4 49.0 0.7 2.2 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 2.2 2.0 -1.6 0.6 54.6 57.2 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.6 1.9 1.3 -0.3 42.6 49.4 0.7 2.2 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.1 0.6 -0.6 -0.3 44.2 48.8 -0.5 1.6 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -3.0 -1.1 -2.7 0.2 49.3 52.6 -2.5 -0.9 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.8 1.7 1.7 -0.4 42.0 47.6 1.3 2.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------