***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.7 -0.4 40.7 47.2 -0.1 1.2 2.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 -0.6 39.8 45.3 -0.4 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.5 1.9 0.7 -0.5 38.2 46.5 1.7 2.6 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -2.6 -0.9 33.1 41.6 -4.7 -3.9 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 -0.9 -0.8 -1.6 -0.2 39.4 49.3 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -1.8 -0.9 -3.2 0.5 45.9 55.9 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.1 0.6 -0.5 41.1 46.1 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -7.2 -5.7 -3.1 0.5 47.5 56.0 -7.1 -5.6 -3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 -0.1 0.2 -1.0 0.0 42.3 51.4 -0.2 0.5 1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -0.2 0.4 -2.4 0.4 46.5 54.8 -0.4 0.7 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -0.3 -0.1 -2.1 0.1 41.3 53.2 -0.6 0.6 2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 -1.4 -0.8 -2.4 0.5 46.3 55.7 -1.6 -0.6 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 1.5 0.8 -2.5 0.7 52.2 57.5 -0.3 0.6 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 0.3 1.0 -1.3 0.0 45.5 50.5 0.5 1.3 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 -0.2 0.1 -1.8 -1.3 28.4 37.2 0.2 1.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 0.4 0.9 -2.4 0.2 44.2 54.1 0.0 1.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.0 0.0 0.4 -0.7 40.2 44.6 -0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -1.9 -0.8 -2.9 0.5 49.5 55.2 -1.6 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.6 38.8 45.5 -0.4 0.9 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 -1.6 -2.5 -4.3 0.9 56.7 58.4 -4.5 -3.0 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 39.9 48.4 -0.5 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.7 39.1 44.3 -0.2 0.3 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -0.5 38.9 46.9 -0.4 0.3 0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -0.5 0.2 -1.4 0.1 45.0 51.1 -0.1 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.8 -0.5 39.3 46.3 -0.2 0.8 1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 -0.5 0.4 -2.6 0.7 50.4 57.8 -0.3 0.4 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 -0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.3 42.3 48.0 -0.2 0.9 1.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.4 -0.9 32.6 42.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -3.3 -1.7 -3.3 0.7 52.7 56.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 1.1 0.0 0.6 -0.6 39.5 45.9 -0.1 0.6 2.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------