***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.03.2018.-11.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -1.3 -1.1 -2.2 24.1 33.6 -0.8 1.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 -2.3 20.8 31.5 -0.8 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 0.3 1.0 -0.9 -2.0 24.3 34.1 1.2 2.9 4.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -7.4 -5.7 -3.7 -2.1 24.5 31.3 -4.7 -3.3 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.2 -1.3 32.4 39.3 -1.2 0.2 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -1.8 -3.9 -0.4 39.4 46.9 -2.2 -0.7 0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -1.2 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 22.7 32.7 -0.9 0.8 2.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -8.7 -7.2 -4.0 -0.6 38.2 45.9 -8.3 -5.7 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -1.2 -0.7 -2.4 -1.6 26.9 37.6 -0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 -3.6 -1.0 33.3 42.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 -1.8 -0.3 -2.8 -1.2 31.6 41.0 -0.3 0.5 1.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.7 -2.9 -0.5 37.8 46.5 -2.0 -0.2 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -2.7 -0.4 39.3 48.3 -0.6 -0.2 1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 -0.6 -0.8 -2.9 -1.8 25.6 35.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 -1.5 -2.2 -3.5 -3.0 17.9 23.0 -0.7 1.4 2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 -0.8 -0.1 -3.0 -1.0 34.1 42.4 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 -1.2 -2.0 -1.5 -2.3 21.6 31.3 -0.6 1.0 2.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -2.1 -3.9 -0.8 35.9 44.5 -2.2 -1.1 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -1.3 -1.5 -1.5 -2.3 19.8 31.6 -0.6 0.7 2.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -3.5 -4.4 -4.4 0.2 45.1 52.3 -6.9 -4.0 -2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 -1.6 -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 25.1 35.6 -0.2 1.0 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 -1.4 -2.4 -1.6 -2.4 19.7 31.0 -1.1 1.0 2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -1.3 -1.8 -1.6 -2.2 19.6 32.5 -0.9 0.5 1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 -1.2 -1.0 -2.6 -1.5 28.8 38.6 -1.0 0.2 1.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -1.2 -0.6 -1.8 -1.8 28.7 35.6 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -1.6 -0.2 -2.6 0.2 44.8 52.2 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 29.0 36.5 -0.1 1.0 1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 -2.9 -2.8 -3.7 -2.4 22.6 29.1 -1.7 -0.7 1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -4.6 -2.9 -4.4 -0.5 39.4 47.3 -3.3 -1.9 -0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -2.3 21.1 32.0 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------