***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 22.02.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.02.2018.-04.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 -4.6 -9.0 -8.2 -8.5 1.6 2.7 -0.7 0.5 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -4.4 -10.9 -8.4 -8.9 0.0 1.7 -1.4 -0.6 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -2.1 -5.7 -8.3 -8.9 1.3 2.6 0.3 1.5 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -9.1 -12.5 -11.3 -9.0 1.8 2.6 -4.9 -4.2 -1.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -4.7 -6.8 -10.1 -8.9 1.6 3.0 -2.1 -0.7 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 -5.2 -5.9 -11.2 -7.1 6.8 9.0 -3.3 -1.6 -0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 -4.9 -7.2 -8.1 -8.5 0.4 2.1 -1.2 -0.5 1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 -9.4 -12.9 -11.5 -7.7 3.9 7.1 -7.6 -6.2 -4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -2.8 -8.0 -10.0 -8.6 1.1 2.9 -1.3 0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -6.3 -11.1 -8.1 2.9 5.2 -1.4 0.0 1.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -4.1 -6.3 -10.5 -8.6 1.1 3.8 -1.5 -0.2 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 99 1 0 100 -5.2 -7.0 -10.6 -7.8 3.0 6.3 -2.3 -1.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -4.3 -6.6 -9.9 -7.3 3.6 6.9 -1.4 -0.7 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -2.7 -7.3 -10.4 -8.7 2.5 4.1 -0.6 0.4 1.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -4.0 -6.0 -9.4 -8.1 3.9 5.1 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 -3.1 -5.5 -10.8 -8.4 1.9 4.2 -0.7 -0.1 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -5.1 -9.6 -9.1 -9.5 0.2 1.4 -1.2 -0.3 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -5.3 -8.6 -11.9 -8.5 3.2 5.1 -3.4 -1.8 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -9.8 -8.4 -8.8 0.3 1.9 -1.3 -0.5 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 -10.4 -14.0 -12.2 -7.7 3.5 6.7 -8.2 -4.7 -2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -3.2 -8.1 -9.0 -9.0 1.2 2.6 -1.5 -0.2 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -4.6 -10.1 -8.9 -9.4 0.3 1.5 -1.5 -0.3 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -3.4 -9.0 -8.5 -8.5 1.1 2.5 -1.6 -0.5 0.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -3.9 -7.1 -10.2 -8.7 2.1 4.0 -1.1 -0.5 0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -7.4 -8.9 -8.4 1.9 3.4 -1.6 -1.0 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 -4.1 -4.6 -9.3 -6.3 6.7 10.3 -2.4 -0.3 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -3.2 -7.7 -8.2 -8.3 1.9 3.9 -1.4 -0.1 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -5.2 -8.2 -11.1 -9.3 1.6 2.6 -3.4 -2.2 0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -6.8 -9.5 -12.3 -8.0 3.3 6.6 -3.9 -1.8 -1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -4.0 -9.4 -8.2 -8.7 0.3 2.0 -1.0 -0.4 1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------