***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 14.9 15.4 35.4 66.7 28.1 29.9 17.9 21.7 42.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 15.4 12.2 30.2 64.5 28.1 29.2 15.5 27.8 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 18.3 14.5 35.2 67.0 26.4 29.9 23.2 33.8 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 26.2 25.0 38.2 63.6 26.8 27.3 26.7 40.1 53.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 21.9 22.1 38.3 65.4 24.1 27.5 29.4 38.0 50.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 19.7 21.4 40.6 70.4 26.7 29.6 23.1 29.8 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 14.2 11.3 29.6 64.4 27.3 28.9 15.7 27.7 34.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 41.1 46.1 43.4 70.2 24.8 28.8 50.8 62.5 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 20.8 18.8 41.7 70.9 27.7 30.8 23.7 33.1 40.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 26.7 26.3 44.7 71.7 26.1 30.3 28.8 38.8 47.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 22.5 22.3 38.4 67.4 25.2 28.1 24.0 27.2 44.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 22.8 21.3 38.1 68.6 24.7 28.1 28.9 36.2 41.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 23.7 23.6 40.6 68.3 25.7 28.0 27.6 38.1 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 28.0 34.8 46.8 72.6 28.9 31.7 38.0 46.6 67.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 14.8 13.9 35.7 63.0 29.9 29.6 16.1 35.5 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 21.7 22.7 39.2 68.6 27.3 28.8 26.1 31.7 41.4 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 12.6 14.4 29.0 64.2 28.6 29.6 15.6 22.0 39.0 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 24.8 24.1 49.1 75.1 28.7 32.7 26.8 35.7 42.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 17.0 13.7 31.5 65.2 27.8 29.3 20.3 30.8 39.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 23.3 23.7 56.4 72.6 27.0 30.7 26.4 38.4 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 18.8 16.5 38.6 68.6 28.4 30.3 17.5 31.9 46.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 14.6 16.3 31.3 66.2 29.6 30.5 18.0 25.0 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 17.5 16.0 34.4 67.0 26.3 29.7 19.0 27.9 36.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 24.6 25.7 44.5 73.1 27.7 32.5 33.4 42.5 64.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 14.9 14.3 39.3 65.4 25.7 28.4 17.9 26.3 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 15.9 18.6 38.1 65.3 23.5 26.8 24.2 35.8 41.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 14.3 14.6 37.4 67.1 27.6 29.6 16.8 24.8 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 16.2 15.1 37.2 65.0 29.4 28.8 17.3 25.9 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 42.7 38.8 52.2 75.3 28.4 32.8 47.9 61.6 67.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 17.5 12.1 31.7 65.5 27.8 29.5 15.4 33.0 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------