***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.8 10.7 81.8 47.0 42.7 1.0 3.1 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 2.8 8.6 75.1 48.8 43.0 0.5 3.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.8 4.3 9.8 75.1 44.9 40.5 2.8 5.9 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.4 12.8 85.1 49.6 42.7 4.3 6.5 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.4 12.8 85.8 48.5 42.5 4.4 7.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.5 13.1 88.8 50.4 43.8 2.2 6.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.6 3.7 8.8 77.8 48.7 43.1 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.9 14.1 13.7 87.1 50.0 42.6 6.8 14.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.9 4.8 12.8 82.4 47.2 41.8 2.7 5.8 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.4 13.8 84.9 49.1 42.5 4.2 10.9 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.5 11.5 12.5 87.6 51.2 42.7 3.0 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.8 12.3 88.5 50.4 42.7 3.3 5.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 7.7 13.4 90.7 52.1 44.3 3.8 7.4 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.6 12.2 74.2 43.9 40.1 5.3 10.7 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.0 11.4 78.6 53.8 41.7 1.3 3.3 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.0 7.4 13.0 91.8 53.5 44.2 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.4 8.4 76.4 49.6 42.6 2.0 6.4 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.9 7.3 13.9 82.9 48.8 42.6 4.3 7.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.4 4.8 8.7 72.9 46.7 41.7 0.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.1 5.7 17.2 89.0 51.6 44.1 3.9 5.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.7 11.7 81.6 46.3 41.7 3.8 6.3 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.8 5.1 8.6 73.2 47.3 41.5 1.7 5.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 1.7 2.6 9.2 71.4 42.9 39.8 1.9 3.3 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.0 11.8 75.9 45.6 40.5 4.8 10.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.1 12.6 85.2 49.1 43.5 1.7 5.3 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 7.4 5.8 12.0 83.5 49.4 42.7 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 5.2 11.7 84.4 49.4 44.1 0.8 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.6 12.5 85.9 54.1 43.2 0.8 4.2 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 13.4 14.5 83.4 49.5 43.0 5.7 13.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.2 9.1 76.5 48.1 43.1 1.3 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------