***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.6 12.1 93.8 58.5 49.6 0.9 3.0 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 3.4 2.5 9.9 86.4 51.8 48.0 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.1 5.8 12.7 99.5 61.2 51.5 3.1 5.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.9 13.2 96.3 57.5 49.9 3.2 5.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.5 13.7 98.2 59.6 50.4 1.5 3.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.1 14.6 102.3 59.2 50.7 1.2 3.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.2 9.6 86.0 54.6 48.5 1.0 2.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 12.9 15.3 105.6 61.4 52.3 9.9 12.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.7 6.3 15.5 105.5 62.4 52.3 1.6 4.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.5 9.2 16.6 108.8 63.6 52.8 3.4 4.9 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.8 13.6 101.8 59.9 51.3 1.3 3.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.6 13.1 101.7 58.1 51.1 2.5 3.2 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.4 14.0 100.3 56.5 50.9 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.5 17.7 113.3 64.6 56.1 2.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.1 13.0 102.0 61.9 51.3 0.1 1.3 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.3 13.5 101.0 57.3 51.0 1.7 2.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.6 9.0 80.3 52.5 46.5 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.5 18.6 115.6 66.2 54.8 2.0 4.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.8 10.6 91.2 54.6 49.7 1.5 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.7 7.9 19.6 106.1 62.9 53.3 3.0 4.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.3 13.7 100.3 61.5 51.2 1.4 5.2 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 3.7 2.9 9.7 84.9 52.6 47.7 0.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.8 5.5 12.4 100.6 61.2 53.2 0.7 2.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.5 17.1 114.4 66.8 55.0 2.5 5.5 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.3 13.6 96.3 59.1 49.7 0.9 5.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.2 13.3 96.8 54.7 50.2 0.8 2.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.8 5.2 12.9 96.1 59.3 50.1 1.1 3.6 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.1 13.3 100.9 59.8 50.5 1.2 2.4 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.7 19.5 115.3 66.2 55.3 4.2 9.8 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.3 10.7 90.8 55.2 49.2 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------