***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.4 11.1 78.5 52.7 41.5 3.6 6.0 7.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.2 10.2 83.9 53.4 44.8 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.4 6.3 11.2 80.6 51.0 40.7 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.8 6.4 10.7 70.7 46.6 38.6 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 1.6 4.6 10.3 66.4 41.9 36.4 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 1.2 3.2 11.0 72.9 46.7 38.3 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.7 9.6 80.8 53.0 43.9 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.0 11.8 12.0 73.6 46.6 38.8 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.3 4.1 11.8 77.3 48.4 40.4 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.2 5.0 11.9 73.5 45.2 38.6 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.1 2.6 10.2 66.5 41.2 36.7 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 1.4 3.3 10.7 72.4 46.7 38.9 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 2.1 5.4 10.7 67.2 42.0 36.3 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.5 14.3 88.6 53.8 43.1 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 1.8 4.3 10.1 70.5 49.7 39.7 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.0 10.6 69.7 44.1 38.4 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.5 10.1 87.1 58.5 47.5 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.9 13.8 82.1 50.2 41.0 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 4.8 10.6 85.1 53.1 44.2 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 1.4 3.5 17.0 79.5 49.6 40.3 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 1.0 3.1 11.5 78.6 51.0 40.5 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.9 4.6 11.3 92.3 58.8 49.2 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.0 11.1 84.2 52.6 42.1 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.2 8.2 13.2 84.0 50.0 41.3 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.3 11.5 70.1 46.0 37.8 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.3 1.8 10.8 70.9 43.6 36.6 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 4.6 11.3 75.4 49.2 40.8 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.1 2.6 9.9 68.1 45.5 38.1 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 4.6 10.3 15.4 84.3 51.3 41.5 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.8 10.3 81.7 52.0 43.1 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------