***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.5 11.5 9.0 9.1 1.1 6.0 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.0 0.0 1.5 13.1 10.2 11.2 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.0 1.5 11.8 9.0 9.5 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 2.0 0.1 1.4 9.0 7.4 7.4 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 2.0 0.0 1.6 11.3 7.0 8.1 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 0.7 0.3 2.0 14.4 12.9 11.9 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 91 9 0 100 1.6 0.6 1.5 13.2 10.6 11.1 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 4.0 2.3 2.4 15.5 10.3 10.3 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 1.7 0.7 1.7 12.8 8.6 8.8 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 3.3 0.4 2.5 16.5 9.7 10.3 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 1.5 0.5 2.1 14.8 10.9 10.3 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 2.1 0.3 1.9 13.8 11.0 10.2 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 2.2 1.6 2.5 16.9 14.3 12.9 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 1.9 0.4 2.5 15.5 11.3 11.4 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 0.4 0.0 1.2 7.8 12.6 10.1 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.1 2.1 14.4 12.9 11.3 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 1.5 0.2 1.5 13.1 12.2 11.0 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 3.2 1.3 2.7 17.1 10.7 10.9 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 94 6 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.6 12.9 10.4 10.9 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 2.0 1.1 2.6 14.3 9.8 9.8 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 1.8 0.2 1.7 12.2 8.6 9.1 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 2.2 0.4 1.6 13.9 11.7 11.6 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 1.3 0.3 1.7 13.0 10.7 10.9 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 95 5 0 100 2.2 1.1 2.3 15.8 11.3 11.0 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 97 3 0 100 0.5 0.0 1.6 10.7 6.9 8.1 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.1 0.4 1.9 13.0 12.8 11.4 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 98 2 0 100 0.2 0.0 1.5 11.3 8.0 9.0 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 1.1 0.2 1.5 10.1 12.0 9.7 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 93 7 0 100 3.1 0.8 2.7 16.4 10.3 10.6 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.5 12.9 9.4 10.6 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------