***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.8 12.9 1.1 62.1 58.4 9.6 12.1 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 13.5 12.9 1.2 64.3 59.0 10.3 11.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.7 14.1 13.3 1.1 62.0 58.3 10.1 12.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.7 10.5 1.1 59.5 58.0 1.1 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.3 11.2 0.9 58.3 56.5 9.5 12.8 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.7 12.8 9.2 0.8 56.0 56.1 7.8 12.1 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 12.4 13.6 12.9 1.2 65.2 59.1 10.3 11.4 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.9 1.8 9.8 0.8 55.9 56.0 -1.3 0.5 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.1 11.7 0.9 57.9 56.6 9.3 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.5 10.6 0.8 56.8 56.1 8.8 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.0 14.0 11.1 0.8 57.3 56.3 9.3 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.2 10.7 0.8 55.5 56.3 7.5 12.6 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.1 9.8 0.7 54.7 55.9 8.9 12.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.7 12.9 11.9 1.0 58.2 56.8 9.8 12.5 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.7 11.4 1.3 62.4 59.6 10.1 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.2 10.6 0.8 57.1 56.7 9.4 13.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.4 12.7 1.2 64.2 59.2 9.6 10.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.5 10.3 0.9 56.1 56.2 8.2 11.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.2 13.1 1.2 63.1 58.9 10.4 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.1 7.4 0.8 55.0 56.0 4.0 7.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.0 13.7 12.5 0.9 59.3 57.3 10.0 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 12.3 13.3 12.8 1.1 62.1 58.8 10.3 11.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.6 13.3 1.1 61.8 58.7 10.5 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.9 11.8 0.9 57.5 56.7 9.3 12.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.8 11.2 1.1 60.5 58.1 9.6 12.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.0 9.8 1.0 55.3 57.2 8.2 11.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.8 12.1 1.1 61.5 58.3 9.9 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.9 10.8 1.2 60.0 58.3 9.7 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.8 9.3 0.8 55.9 56.1 3.6 7.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.6 12.9 1.1 64.4 58.9 10.3 11.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------