***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 13.0 15.3 13.9 4.7 92.0 84.2 7.4 11.5 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 13.1 14.9 13.9 4.5 92.0 84.1 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 13.6 15.5 14.5 4.8 90.5 84.0 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 6.1 8.3 11.4 5.0 88.8 84.0 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 13.8 15.1 12.6 4.7 88.0 83.0 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 12 88 100 12.7 14.7 11.0 4.9 90.6 84.2 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 12.7 14.9 13.7 4.5 92.7 84.0 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 3.5 4.2 10.6 4.1 84.6 80.3 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 13.8 14.8 13.5 4.8 88.3 83.4 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 14.3 14.9 11.8 4.4 84.4 80.6 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 14.1 15.3 12.9 4.8 88.6 83.3 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 13.1 14.5 11.8 4.5 88.0 82.6 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 14.1 15.3 12.0 4.5 88.9 83.0 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 14.5 16.6 13.7 4.9 88.0 83.0 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 13.9 15.7 12.9 5.0 90.1 84.9 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 14.4 16.0 12.3 4.8 89.1 83.5 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 12.4 14.1 13.5 4.4 91.6 83.9 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 13.7 14.9 11.4 4.5 86.3 81.1 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 12 88 100 12.9 15.4 14.2 4.6 91.4 84.1 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 8.2 9.6 8.2 3.6 84.2 78.4 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 13.7 15.1 14.1 4.7 88.2 83.2 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 13.5 14.6 13.7 4.4 90.0 83.0 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 13.8 15.8 14.5 4.8 90.8 84.4 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 14.5 16.2 13.6 4.9 88.6 83.2 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 13.3 14.7 12.7 4.8 91.1 84.1 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 13.5 14.8 10.7 4.3 90.4 83.2 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 13.2 15.4 13.3 4.6 92.8 84.0 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 13.8 16.5 12.1 5.0 89.3 84.1 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 8.2 9.9 10.4 4.3 86.8 80.9 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 12.7 15.1 14.0 4.6 92.3 84.1 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------