***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.8 14.1 10.7 2.3 68.8 68.0 6.0 10.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.9 13.5 11.5 2.8 72.8 72.1 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 9.1 12.1 11.1 2.2 64.7 64.5 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 6.1 6.8 7.3 2.3 67.2 66.6 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 9.0 11.0 8.6 1.5 58.1 58.8 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 8.9 8.3 5.8 0.1 50.3 50.6 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.9 13.4 11.2 2.7 72.6 71.8 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 0.5 2.0 6.8 1.0 59.5 57.3 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 9.5 12.3 10.2 1.9 62.3 61.9 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 92 8 100 9.5 11.1 7.9 1.0 56.3 55.8 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 10.5 11.7 9.2 1.4 59.3 58.8 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 9.4 12.0 7.9 1.4 63.2 60.5 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 9.7 9.2 8.0 0.5 48.7 52.1 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 9.7 14.0 10.8 2.4 64.0 63.3 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 13.1 14.2 10.1 3.1 74.5 73.3 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 10.4 11.0 8.1 1.1 55.9 56.7 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 11.5 12.6 11.4 3.1 76.4 75.8 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 9.9 10.3 7.6 1.3 56.3 57.0 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 11.5 14.0 11.5 2.7 70.1 70.1 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 5.7 5.5 5.0 0.6 54.1 53.5 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 9.2 12.0 10.7 1.8 62.9 61.5 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 12.5 13.8 11.8 3.2 74.3 74.4 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 12.0 13.1 11.6 2.7 66.9 67.6 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 10.4 12.5 10.3 1.9 61.8 60.9 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 8.1 11.3 9.1 1.8 64.8 63.6 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 10.6 10.7 6.3 0.6 53.4 53.6 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 48 52 100 11.4 11.8 9.9 2.0 66.5 65.6 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 13.3 13.5 8.5 2.3 67.5 67.0 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 5.9 6.9 7.1 1.3 58.1 58.2 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.9 13.5 11.3 2.6 70.7 70.2 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------