***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 0.0 3.0 3.4 0.6 57.5 56.0 0.7 2.2 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 0.0 2.3 3.4 0.8 58.7 57.3 0.1 1.9 2.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.5 3.4 0.6 57.0 56.4 2.3 3.8 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -4.5 -1.7 0.5 0.5 53.3 55.2 -4.3 -1.9 -0.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 50.0 53.2 0.0 1.1 2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -1.2 -0.1 -1.6 0.3 48.5 53.9 -0.7 0.0 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.4 3.1 3.4 0.8 59.2 57.2 0.3 2.3 3.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -7.5 -6.0 -1.6 0.2 45.6 52.4 -8.0 -5.8 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 0.3 2.1 1.0 0.3 49.6 53.6 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 0.5 1.3 -0.7 0.2 47.6 52.4 0.6 1.7 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 2.4 1.6 -0.1 0.2 49.1 52.4 0.4 1.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -0.9 0.3 -0.8 0.2 46.8 53.2 -0.6 0.6 2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 0.2 1.5 -1.1 0.3 48.7 54.0 0.3 1.6 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 1.4 3.0 1.0 0.4 53.2 54.0 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 4.0 2.8 1.8 0.8 59.2 58.7 1.1 2.5 3.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.9 2.5 -0.6 0.2 48.8 52.8 0.8 2.7 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 0.6 3.1 3.4 0.9 59.6 57.8 0.3 2.1 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -1.1 0.0 -1.4 0.2 48.7 52.7 -0.7 0.2 1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 0.1 2.9 3.3 0.7 58.4 56.9 0.4 2.4 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -3.9 -3.2 -3.2 0.1 45.8 51.9 -3.9 -2.8 -1.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.1 2.2 2.5 0.5 52.7 54.7 1.3 2.1 3.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.1 2.5 3.1 0.8 57.8 57.2 0.2 2.0 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 0.0 2.7 3.0 0.6 56.2 56.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 0.5 1.9 0.7 0.4 52.7 54.5 0.7 1.6 3.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 0.0 2.2 2.0 0.6 55.7 56.0 1.1 1.8 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 0.2 1.8 -1.2 0.4 49.5 54.4 0.4 1.9 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 0.3 2.4 2.9 0.6 57.5 56.4 0.9 2.1 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 54.4 55.8 -0.7 0.9 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -3.1 -1.2 -1.9 0.2 48.9 52.8 -3.5 -1.0 0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 0.6 2.8 3.4 0.7 58.6 57.1 0.6 2.7 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------