***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2019.-10.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 2.9 3.6 4.2 3.3 80.4 79.5 -0.3 0.6 2.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 2.3 3.2 4.0 3.3 84.1 81.4 -0.8 0.6 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 4.4 5.0 4.2 3.2 82.0 79.8 1.2 3.0 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 -1.1 -0.5 1.3 3.1 77.7 78.0 -5.1 -3.5 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 1.7 2.2 1.9 2.9 76.2 76.1 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 0.3 0.6 -0.7 2.8 76.1 76.1 -2.9 -0.9 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 2.8 3.5 4.1 3.3 82.6 81.0 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -4.6 -4.2 -1.1 2.2 71.5 69.7 -8.2 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 3.0 3.5 1.6 2.6 77.8 75.1 -0.5 1.2 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 2.4 2.6 -0.2 2.3 73.4 70.9 -0.8 0.8 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 2.1 2.3 0.8 2.5 74.4 73.1 -0.8 0.3 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 0.7 0.7 0.2 2.6 75.2 73.4 -2.2 -0.4 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 1.9 1.4 0.1 2.5 72.5 72.7 -1.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 3.1 3.9 1.9 3.0 82.7 78.3 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 2.8 3.7 2.2 2.9 80.4 78.4 -0.5 0.8 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 2.8 3.1 0.5 2.6 73.6 74.1 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.4 84.6 81.8 -0.4 1.2 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 0.3 0.8 -0.3 2.6 75.5 73.7 -2.7 -1.4 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.2 83.7 81.1 -0.6 0.6 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 -1.8 -1.7 -2.0 2.4 72.0 71.5 -7.1 -4.0 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 2.6 3.4 3.3 3.0 79.1 77.5 -0.4 0.5 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 2.7 3.1 3.8 3.2 83.7 81.0 -0.6 1.0 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 2.2 3.0 3.4 3.0 82.4 79.9 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 2.3 3.0 1.7 2.8 79.8 77.1 -0.8 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.4 79.3 79.2 0.0 0.7 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 1.8 2.1 -0.1 2.7 76.3 75.9 -1.5 -0.1 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 2.5 3.4 3.9 3.5 80.8 79.9 -0.5 0.7 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 1.3 1.9 1.5 2.9 77.3 77.1 -2.0 -1.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.1 2.6 74.7 73.2 -3.7 -1.6 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 2.9 3.6 4.1 3.3 83.4 80.7 -0.4 1.1 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------