***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2019.-03.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 0.4 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 39.4 39.3 -1.7 0.1 2.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 45.7 44.7 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 98 2 100 1.2 0.9 0.0 -0.1 45.9 45.8 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 95 5 100 -4.1 -4.3 -2.3 0.4 50.1 50.5 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 97 3 100 -1.4 -2.0 -1.8 -0.2 43.2 43.1 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 -1.5 -2.7 -4.9 -0.5 37.6 39.1 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 -0.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 43.7 43.3 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 98 2 100 -6.7 -7.0 -4.1 0.3 45.7 46.2 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 100 0 100 -0.1 -0.6 -1.3 0.5 47.5 48.2 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 99 1 100 -0.6 -1.2 -3.0 0.5 47.1 48.1 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 99 1 100 -0.4 -1.1 -1.8 0.5 46.5 47.4 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 99 1 100 -1.5 -2.5 -3.3 -0.1 42.8 43.0 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 99 1 100 -0.7 -1.1 -3.4 -0.4 39.8 40.0 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 99 1 100 0.3 0.4 -1.3 0.9 52.2 52.6 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 1.2 56.0 56.5 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 100 0 100 0.0 -0.5 -3.0 -0.2 42.4 42.1 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 97 3 100 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.3 48.0 48.1 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -2.4 -2.9 -3.5 0.4 47.6 48.0 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 98 2 100 -0.5 -0.8 -0.2 -0.1 46.1 45.9 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 -4.7 -8.1 -6.1 -1.1 35.8 36.9 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 98 2 100 -0.6 -1.4 -0.6 0.0 44.8 45.1 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 97 3 100 -0.5 -0.8 0.2 0.3 47.5 48.3 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 98 2 100 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 47.8 48.0 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 98 2 100 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 1.0 52.7 53.4 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 97 3 100 -1.2 -2.0 -1.6 -0.8 38.7 39.6 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 0.2 -1.6 -4.2 -0.9 36.6 36.7 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 -0.3 -1.7 -1.3 -0.9 38.8 39.4 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 -2.3 -2.6 -1.8 0.5 50.1 50.1 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 -2.7 -3.3 -4.8 0.0 45.3 45.7 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 45.0 43.6 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------