***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 0.0 54.5 124.0 62.5 62.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 33.2 34.8 49.8 121.7 67.1 62.5 15.5 27.8 31.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 38.4 52.5 55.6 125.0 67.1 63.3 23.2 33.8 51.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 53.5 55.4 66.9 138.6 71.4 70.7 26.7 40.1 53.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 47.6 54.0 66.2 134.0 71.8 69.0 29.4 38.0 50.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 42.4 51.3 74.7 138.2 80.9 73.9 23.1 29.8 43.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 30.6 34.4 48.8 120.0 65.9 61.5 15.7 27.7 34.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 74.9 82.7 70.2 131.9 73.5 68.9 50.8 62.5 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 35.3 40.4 62.2 123.6 65.9 64.1 23.7 33.1 40.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 42.2 49.6 68.2 125.7 69.2 66.1 28.8 38.8 47.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 43.0 53.6 64.5 136.4 76.4 70.3 24.0 27.2 44.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 45.8 50.7 64.6 138.3 76.4 71.5 28.9 36.2 41.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 47.5 56.9 72.3 141.7 80.8 73.6 27.6 38.1 43.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 51.8 59.3 63.8 115.3 60.6 59.1 38.0 46.6 67.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 61.6 74.9 70.4 156.4 81.5 76.2 16.1 35.5 58.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 44.6 53.6 68.0 141.1 79.2 72.5 26.1 31.7 41.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.7 33.1 45.5 114.0 63.1 59.6 15.6 22.0 39.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 38.5 42.1 72.1 119.0 66.3 62.4 26.8 35.7 42.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 34.5 40.1 51.5 122.7 67.0 62.8 20.3 30.8 39.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 40.6 45.1 82.4 119.6 67.7 61.8 26.4 38.4 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 36.1 44.9 57.7 122.6 64.9 62.6 17.5 31.9 46.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 30.3 32.8 48.2 116.3 62.4 61.0 18.0 25.0 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 32.7 34.9 54.4 120.8 65.0 61.4 19.0 27.9 36.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 47.9 64.4 64.8 119.4 65.2 61.6 33.4 42.5 64.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 32.7 50.0 64.9 129.2 66.7 65.5 17.9 26.3 49.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 45.0 49.3 71.0 142.0 79.5 74.2 24.2 35.8 41.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 30.2 39.4 59.5 124.0 63.3 62.5 16.8 24.8 47.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 47.4 62.8 69.6 149.5 79.8 74.9 17.3 25.9 50.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 64.1 66.6 74.9 116.7 64.5 60.2 47.9 61.6 67.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 36.4 40.5 51.5 123.8 67.0 63.0 15.4 33.0 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------