***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 12.1 120.7 67.8 59.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.8 15.6 11.6 118.3 72.4 60.6 0.5 3.6 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 8.4 11.6 12.9 127.9 72.7 62.0 2.8 5.9 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 11.9 13.8 14.6 137.6 74.4 65.7 4.3 6.5 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.0 22.3 15.0 138.1 76.2 65.5 4.4 7.8 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 11.3 12.8 18.2 145.4 75.5 68.5 2.2 6.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.9 8.8 11.2 115.6 69.9 60.0 1.2 3.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 24.0 30.3 17.2 145.7 75.6 66.8 6.8 14.2 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.4 14.9 15.1 133.6 75.8 64.7 2.7 5.8 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 17.2 19.8 16.9 138.4 74.7 65.7 4.2 10.9 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 18.5 23.4 14.8 145.5 77.1 66.4 3.0 10.4 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 16.0 22.2 15.0 150.5 77.1 67.7 3.3 5.8 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 16.7 18.5 16.6 148.4 73.8 68.8 3.8 7.4 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.0 15.0 15.8 122.1 70.1 60.6 5.3 10.7 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 12.1 14.8 13.6 134.8 74.5 64.0 1.3 3.3 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.9 17.4 15.4 148.6 76.2 68.2 2.7 5.6 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 10.6 12.9 11.3 115.4 73.2 61.8 2.0 6.4 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 12.7 14.5 18.3 131.0 72.0 64.3 4.3 7.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.2 14.5 12.1 121.2 72.2 60.7 0.6 5.3 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 17.8 18.1 21.6 135.2 75.0 65.8 3.9 5.3 11.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 12.3 11.7 13.7 130.1 72.5 63.5 3.8 6.3 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 13.3 13.2 12.1 119.4 71.3 61.6 1.7 5.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.2 11.0 12.9 123.3 71.4 59.9 1.9 3.3 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.9 20.7 15.9 128.4 71.9 62.6 4.8 10.4 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 9.7 10.2 14.5 127.8 71.6 62.4 1.7 5.3 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 9.6 11.7 16.1 147.9 72.8 67.6 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.6 13.3 121.4 68.7 59.9 0.8 5.4 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.9 14.5 141.4 75.5 66.2 0.8 4.2 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 17.9 29.8 19.2 128.2 72.0 63.9 5.7 13.8 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.9 9.4 11.8 120.1 71.1 60.3 1.3 3.3 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------