***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.8 115.6 64.3 55.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.9 11.2 113.5 64.6 56.9 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.7 13.1 110.9 59.6 54.6 3.1 5.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.1 16.5 115.6 64.3 56.7 3.2 5.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 1.7 6.1 16.4 113.8 65.4 56.3 1.5 3.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.6 4.7 18.8 117.7 65.6 55.7 1.2 3.2 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 3.2 4.9 11.0 113.5 63.7 56.9 1.0 2.4 5.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.9 17.4 107.2 61.6 52.1 9.9 12.1 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.8 15.9 112.1 65.4 55.4 1.6 4.5 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 8.6 17.1 107.3 61.6 52.6 3.4 4.9 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.6 15.8 110.2 64.0 53.5 1.3 3.8 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.8 15.6 107.9 61.7 52.6 2.5 3.2 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.7 16.7 109.3 60.7 53.2 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 15.9 105.2 60.4 52.4 2.7 5.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 3.0 3.6 15.7 115.5 64.8 55.5 0.1 1.3 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.3 16.3 111.4 62.7 53.7 1.7 2.8 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 3.2 3.9 10.1 110.9 65.1 57.1 0.6 2.5 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.7 18.3 104.5 60.1 51.0 2.0 4.6 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.3 11.8 112.8 63.7 56.5 1.5 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.7 21.6 106.8 60.1 51.1 3.0 4.7 8.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 2.4 6.5 14.7 115.7 64.6 56.3 1.4 5.2 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 3.6 3.9 10.9 111.9 64.2 57.9 0.4 2.6 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.8 5.5 13.0 110.5 61.3 55.5 0.7 2.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.1 16.0 104.8 59.0 52.4 2.5 5.5 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.8 15.5 119.3 67.1 57.1 0.9 5.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.6 16.3 111.2 64.5 54.2 0.8 2.2 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 7.0 14.0 117.0 66.1 56.4 1.1 3.6 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.9 16.4 113.7 65.2 55.4 1.2 2.4 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 10.5 19.5 105.5 59.5 50.6 4.2 9.8 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 3.7 4.2 11.7 113.2 62.4 56.0 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------