***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.2 114.2 66.0 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.2 12.5 111.2 61.5 54.3 1.2 3.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.7 8.0 13.0 113.3 64.1 51.8 3.4 6.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.9 13.4 111.7 62.3 52.4 4.5 6.6 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.4 6.6 13.4 110.4 59.9 52.6 3.6 4.9 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.7 7.7 14.7 101.0 60.1 51.1 1.9 3.5 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.2 12.7 112.4 63.8 54.8 1.3 2.4 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 7.6 18.3 13.9 105.4 63.0 53.0 8.9 13.1 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.5 12.8 102.4 53.7 49.1 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 2.7 7.6 13.6 101.5 57.6 50.3 2.3 6.1 8.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.3 6.9 12.1 102.6 60.2 51.9 1.5 3.0 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 1.5 7.7 12.2 104.4 63.1 53.3 2.8 3.8 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.3 14.2 107.5 66.1 55.0 3.5 7.1 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.5 13.0 15.6 110.9 64.7 52.7 3.7 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.1 6.1 13.4 117.0 67.2 54.1 1.0 4.3 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.6 12.9 105.1 62.5 53.4 2.4 5.3 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.7 11.9 107.2 61.5 53.8 0.9 2.5 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.4 15.6 103.8 56.5 50.3 1.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 7.3 12.6 111.3 63.4 53.7 1.8 4.0 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 1.6 7.6 19.2 112.8 64.3 53.9 2.4 3.5 8.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 1.4 6.6 12.7 108.0 60.1 50.6 1.9 2.8 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.5 6.3 12.2 109.2 64.4 53.8 1.4 2.6 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.4 11.5 13.2 113.0 68.7 53.8 1.4 5.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.6 14.8 109.2 60.2 51.0 2.0 8.2 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.2 15.0 115.5 64.6 54.4 2.3 5.7 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.4 13.3 100.2 62.7 52.7 0.8 3.3 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.5 14.4 113.3 64.6 53.5 1.7 4.8 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.4 8.1 13.0 112.0 64.3 53.4 1.8 3.0 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 13.2 17.1 106.8 59.7 51.5 4.6 10.3 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.5 12.7 112.2 62.8 53.6 1.3 4.6 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------