***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 9999.0 0.0 16.5 145.3 68.1 66.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 10.4 14.3 14.4 145.3 69.7 66.0 4.0 9.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 8.0 16.7 16.5 149.9 70.4 67.7 3.9 6.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 20.4 25.1 22.4 197.3 86.6 79.1 3.7 10.0 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 18.7 24.1 21.5 178.3 82.5 75.9 5.1 8.4 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 17.4 28.1 23.0 209.4 89.2 81.8 3.0 7.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 10.4 12.4 13.9 139.4 67.1 64.5 1.4 9.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 22.3 27.0 21.8 180.4 81.4 76.5 8.8 15.0 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 12.2 15.4 18.4 149.0 72.4 68.4 3.4 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.4 20.6 162.4 76.0 72.1 5.5 9.1 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 13.5 18.5 21.8 199.1 85.2 79.2 3.4 6.5 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 15.9 22.2 21.7 205.6 86.8 80.1 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 18.0 22.7 24.8 218.5 90.3 83.6 4.3 7.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 12.1 16.0 16.4 124.9 64.8 61.0 6.2 10.5 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 25.4 42.1 27.8 280.6 94.5 88.2 0.7 8.4 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 17.1 27.2 23.3 215.0 90.1 82.1 2.5 10.1 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 9.9 11.0 12.2 123.0 65.6 59.8 4.3 8.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 9.2 11.5 19.9 141.0 71.0 66.1 6.3 8.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.9 12.1 15.1 146.9 70.4 66.2 4.1 6.8 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 9.3 11.7 20.0 127.7 67.9 63.3 5.0 8.2 11.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.3 15.8 16.6 138.3 68.6 65.1 3.2 5.6 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.3 12.4 13.0 125.1 67.8 61.1 5.6 10.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 6.8 8.0 15.3 137.7 68.1 63.3 3.1 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 10.2 13.4 18.2 138.5 68.4 64.8 6.0 8.9 11.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 18.5 25.5 19.9 154.1 72.8 70.2 1.9 7.7 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 18.8 26.9 25.2 227.0 90.4 84.0 2.6 7.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 7.3 12.2 17.8 144.0 68.2 66.7 1.6 5.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 18.6 27.4 25.7 251.1 92.4 85.6 2.7 7.7 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 13.3 17.6 19.0 129.7 67.2 62.6 7.7 12.0 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 13.6 13.1 15.3 151.4 71.5 67.8 5.0 7.9 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------