***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.5 0.1 54.4 52.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.0 10.3 0.0 50.5 51.6 8.6 11.0 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.1 10.6 0.0 49.3 50.9 9.3 11.1 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.4 3.8 8.6 0.1 50.6 51.1 2.0 3.7 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.0 9.2 0.2 54.4 52.5 9.6 11.7 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.6 11.3 7.8 0.6 61.6 57.6 8.6 10.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 8.4 10.9 10.3 0.2 52.5 53.2 8.1 10.5 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.0 8.0 0.2 55.9 53.9 -0.6 0.7 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.1 9.9 0.1 54.3 52.2 9.7 11.9 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.1 8.8 0.2 53.9 53.0 9.7 11.8 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.3 9.1 0.2 56.1 53.3 10.0 11.9 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.7 8.8 0.3 58.4 54.4 9.0 10.6 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.6 8.5 0.4 60.4 56.4 9.8 11.6 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 9.5 11.5 9.7 -0.1 48.6 49.6 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.2 8.9 0.0 45.2 50.3 9.4 11.2 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.6 8.8 0.3 57.3 54.4 10.2 11.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.1 10.4 10.0 0.1 50.4 51.6 8.0 10.4 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.9 8.2 0.2 54.1 53.3 9.5 11.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 8.8 10.9 10.5 0.0 48.7 50.7 8.5 11.0 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.8 6.0 0.3 57.1 54.7 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.1 10.3 0.0 52.2 51.2 9.9 11.8 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.9 11.0 10.2 -0.1 46.6 49.5 9.2 11.3 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.2 10.5 -0.1 47.8 49.9 9.3 11.4 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.8 9.6 0.0 50.9 51.3 9.9 11.8 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.3 9.1 0.1 54.2 51.8 9.3 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.5 12.0 8.1 0.5 63.3 57.2 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 9.1 11.5 9.8 0.2 56.2 52.8 9.0 10.9 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.2 8.9 0.1 48.4 51.2 9.9 11.4 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.0 7.3 0.3 55.4 54.2 5.2 6.1 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.6 10.7 10.5 0.1 50.7 52.0 8.6 10.7 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------