***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.9 -1.2 36.3 40.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 9.8 10.7 10.8 -1.1 39.1 41.7 10.3 11.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 10.3 10.4 11.1 -1.2 37.6 41.2 10.1 12.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.3 1.1 9.1 -1.4 33.6 39.6 1.1 5.4 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 9.7 10.1 9.5 -1.3 38.0 40.3 9.5 12.8 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.9 11.6 7.9 -0.8 44.2 45.0 7.8 12.1 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 9.5 10.7 10.7 -1.1 39.0 41.5 10.3 11.4 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.0 -0.4 8.2 -1.0 42.6 42.6 -1.3 0.5 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 9.6 10.3 10.0 -1.3 38.8 40.4 9.3 12.5 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.2 11.2 8.9 -1.2 42.0 41.7 8.8 12.4 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 9.4 11.2 9.3 -1.1 42.0 41.4 9.3 12.7 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.1 11.1 9.1 -1.0 42.6 42.7 7.5 12.6 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.1 12.5 8.6 -0.8 44.1 43.8 8.9 12.8 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 10.4 12.0 10.0 -1.1 39.4 42.8 9.8 12.5 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 9.6 10.1 9.3 -1.5 31.5 39.1 10.1 13.7 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.8 9.0 -1.0 42.0 42.6 9.4 13.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 9.1 9.7 10.6 -1.1 39.2 41.7 9.6 10.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 9.3 11.7 8.4 -1.1 44.1 42.7 8.2 11.9 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 10.1 10.8 11.0 -1.1 39.1 41.9 10.4 11.8 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.3 6.7 6.1 -0.8 45.9 44.5 4.0 7.4 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 9.9 10.8 10.6 -1.3 37.2 40.3 10.0 12.9 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 10.1 11.0 10.7 -1.1 39.1 41.7 10.3 11.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.0 11.0 -1.1 38.8 42.6 10.5 12.2 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 10.1 11.9 9.9 -1.1 41.1 42.0 9.3 12.4 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 9.2 9.7 9.4 -1.4 33.2 39.5 9.6 12.4 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.2 11.5 8.4 -0.7 42.9 44.3 8.2 11.7 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 9.7 10.1 10.1 -1.3 34.5 40.3 9.9 12.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 9.7 9.8 9.4 -1.4 34.1 40.3 9.7 13.8 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 6.8 7.4 -0.9 47.4 43.8 3.6 7.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 9.6 10.6 11.0 -1.1 38.4 41.4 10.3 11.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------