***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.1 -0.4 49.6 48.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.1 11.0 10.0 -0.4 48.3 48.6 9.9 11.2 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 9.7 12.1 10.3 -0.4 49.6 49.1 10.3 12.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 1.2 4.2 8.3 -0.4 49.6 48.0 1.1 4.4 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.6 12.3 8.8 -0.3 50.1 49.7 9.9 12.2 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.3 7.4 0.2 55.1 52.9 8.4 10.8 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 8.5 10.8 9.9 -0.4 49.6 48.9 9.3 10.8 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -0.3 2.0 7.9 0.1 55.0 53.0 -1.6 1.8 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.9 12.5 9.4 -0.3 50.7 50.2 9.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.5 12.6 8.5 -0.1 53.3 51.9 9.9 12.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 9.4 13.0 8.7 -0.1 52.0 51.0 9.8 12.5 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.9 8.6 0.0 52.7 52.7 9.2 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.6 8.2 0.1 52.2 53.3 10.0 12.5 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.1 12.8 9.5 -0.2 49.2 50.6 10.7 12.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 8.2 11.1 8.3 -0.6 45.4 46.1 9.4 11.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.9 8.4 -0.1 50.7 51.3 10.2 12.9 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 8.6 10.5 9.8 -0.5 46.5 48.3 8.8 10.8 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.7 8.1 0.0 53.4 53.0 9.4 12.2 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 9.2 12.0 10.2 -0.4 47.9 48.8 9.8 12.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 8.1 5.9 0.2 56.2 54.4 5.0 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.8 12.1 9.9 -0.4 50.1 49.2 10.3 12.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.7 11.2 10.0 -0.5 45.6 48.2 9.6 12.1 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.9 12.5 10.3 -0.4 48.4 49.4 9.9 12.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.5 13.0 9.4 -0.2 51.1 51.3 10.6 12.9 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 8.7 11.9 8.6 -0.5 50.5 48.4 9.4 11.8 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 8.0 0.2 53.9 54.3 9.8 12.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 8.3 11.2 9.4 -0.4 51.3 48.9 10.1 11.1 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.8 12.3 8.4 -0.4 48.5 47.8 9.3 12.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 8.1 7.2 0.1 55.0 53.7 4.2 7.9 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 9.0 11.2 10.2 -0.4 49.7 48.8 9.7 11.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------