***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 1.5 65.1 62.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.1 11.0 1.2 63.8 59.2 7.6 11.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.9 11.6 1.5 65.7 61.6 8.5 12.2 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 4.0 5.3 10.1 1.9 67.4 64.3 0.4 3.5 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.0 13.3 10.5 2.0 68.0 64.5 8.4 11.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.6 9.2 2.3 71.7 66.8 7.6 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 11.5 12.1 10.8 1.2 62.5 59.4 7.0 11.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 2.6 2.4 9.2 1.9 68.7 64.4 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 13.3 13.1 11.0 1.9 67.7 63.4 8.8 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.6 13.2 10.0 1.9 68.0 63.9 8.8 12.1 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 13.4 13.7 10.3 2.0 68.4 65.0 8.4 12.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.9 10.0 1.9 69.1 64.7 8.1 11.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.9 9.6 2.1 71.0 65.7 8.6 12.1 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.7 10.7 1.4 60.7 60.9 9.4 12.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 11.5 13.3 10.1 1.7 64.0 62.4 5.5 11.0 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 13.8 13.9 10.0 2.1 69.9 65.6 9.6 12.5 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.0 10.5 1.0 62.5 58.5 6.6 10.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.7 13.4 9.3 1.8 68.0 63.1 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.6 11.3 1.2 63.7 59.6 7.7 11.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.4 7.0 1.7 68.7 63.4 5.0 6.5 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 12.5 13.3 11.4 1.7 67.4 63.0 8.6 12.2 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.7 10.8 1.0 62.1 58.3 7.1 11.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 11.4 1.3 62.5 60.3 9.0 12.3 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.7 13.3 10.7 1.6 64.6 61.9 8.6 12.3 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.6 12.7 10.1 1.7 66.8 63.0 7.3 11.3 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.4 9.2 1.9 71.6 65.5 10.2 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.5 10.6 1.5 65.3 62.2 8.1 11.9 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.6 13.8 10.3 2.0 67.1 64.2 6.6 11.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.6 8.3 1.8 67.8 63.1 4.5 6.9 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.6 12.3 11.2 1.3 63.4 60.1 7.4 11.3 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------