***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 9999.0 0.0 9.6 0.6 56.6 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 8.4 10.6 9.6 0.5 55.8 55.6 5.1 7.6 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 9.3 8.1 9.6 0.1 49.2 49.2 6.5 8.4 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 3.4 3.1 6.8 0.3 53.1 52.8 -0.6 2.8 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 9.2 8.5 8.0 0.2 47.8 50.6 7.4 8.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 9.0 8.6 6.7 0.5 52.1 53.8 6.6 8.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 8.5 10.1 9.7 0.9 62.2 61.0 5.0 7.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 0.5 -0.3 6.8 0.0 45.2 48.2 -1.7 0.1 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 9.8 8.7 9.0 0.2 46.0 49.0 7.4 9.0 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 9.8 8.6 7.7 0.0 44.7 47.6 7.2 9.0 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 10.7 9.0 8.1 0.1 46.1 48.6 7.2 10.0 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 9.3 8.5 7.6 0.2 47.2 49.1 7.1 8.8 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 9.8 9.6 7.8 0.4 51.7 51.4 8.0 9.4 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 10.1 8.1 8.6 -0.4 43.0 44.1 6.3 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 94 6 100 8.4 9.0 8.1 0.4 55.6 54.4 4.4 8.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 10.4 9.6 7.9 0.3 49.1 50.7 8.2 9.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 7.6 9.9 9.3 0.7 58.4 58.1 4.6 7.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.2 7.9 7.1 0.0 43.8 48.1 7.2 9.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 8.1 7.5 9.5 0.2 52.0 51.1 4.9 7.2 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 5.8 5.2 5.0 0.0 46.0 48.9 3.1 5.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 9.4 8.3 9.4 0.1 46.8 48.5 7.4 8.7 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 8.3 7.7 9.1 0.2 50.6 50.5 4.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.1 7.6 9.4 -0.1 46.5 46.3 6.0 8.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 10.8 8.1 8.6 -0.2 43.2 46.2 6.8 9.9 14.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 91 9 100 8.0 9.8 8.2 0.5 56.2 55.7 6.0 7.3 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 10.5 10.5 6.9 0.4 52.6 52.5 8.2 10.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 8.7 10.3 9.1 0.8 60.7 58.3 6.9 8.2 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 9.5 8.9 7.6 0.2 52.2 52.2 5.3 8.8 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 6.2 5.1 6.4 0.1 46.5 49.5 4.0 5.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 8.8 10.0 9.7 0.6 56.2 55.5 4.7 8.1 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------