***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 0.0 2.4 1.0 71.8 66.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.9 68.4 64.6 -0.6 0.2 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 4.3 4.2 2.1 0.9 69.1 65.9 1.5 2.9 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 -2.0 -1.8 0.1 1.1 72.0 67.2 -4.4 -3.6 -2.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 0.9 1.1 0.5 1.2 73.2 67.9 -0.9 0.1 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 0.3 0.6 -1.1 1.6 79.2 73.3 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 1.8 2.1 2.1 0.9 69.7 65.3 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -4.1 -3.4 -0.7 1.6 76.5 72.2 -7.4 -6.4 -5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 1.9 2.4 1.1 1.2 72.7 67.6 0.0 0.9 2.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 1.9 2.3 -0.1 1.4 73.6 70.1 -0.4 0.8 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 1.6 1.9 0.3 1.3 74.8 70.0 -0.5 0.8 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.4 77.0 71.7 -1.6 -0.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 1.5 1.7 -0.3 1.4 77.8 72.0 -0.4 0.5 1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 2.2 2.0 0.7 0.9 63.9 63.5 0.5 1.1 2.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 1.8 2.0 0.6 1.0 66.9 64.9 0.2 1.2 1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 2.2 2.5 -0.1 1.3 74.5 70.3 0.2 1.2 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.0 1.9 0.8 67.0 62.9 -0.3 1.1 1.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 1.6 73.3 70.7 -1.9 -1.0 0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 1.9 1.7 2.0 0.8 68.0 64.4 -0.3 0.6 1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 -2.2 -1.6 -2.3 1.7 78.5 72.2 -5.1 -3.6 -3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.0 72.0 66.3 -0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.7 64.9 61.4 -0.6 0.3 1.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 1.6 1.4 1.8 0.8 67.7 64.4 -0.6 0.5 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 1.6 1.6 0.6 1.1 68.6 66.8 -0.5 0.5 1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 1.7 1.8 1.1 1.1 73.0 67.4 -0.6 0.6 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 1.6 1.9 -0.3 1.4 78.2 72.0 -0.2 0.5 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.1 73.0 66.8 -0.3 0.9 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 0.3 0.6 0.4 1.1 69.0 66.3 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 -0.2 0.4 -1.3 1.7 75.5 72.2 -3.8 -2.2 -1.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 2.1 2.2 2.2 0.9 69.8 65.6 -0.2 0.9 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------