***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.5 0.1 53.7 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 -0.6 0.5 1.4 0.2 53.3 53.9 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.3 2.4 1.2 0.0 48.9 52.7 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -5.1 -3.4 -0.8 0.1 47.0 52.6 -4.7 -3.4 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 -1.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 47.6 52.5 -0.9 -0.2 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 -1.9 -0.7 -2.0 0.6 52.4 57.8 -1.7 -0.8 -0.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 -0.5 0.5 1.4 0.3 54.9 54.6 -0.5 0.4 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -7.5 -6.2 -1.5 0.5 52.7 57.5 -7.2 -6.6 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 47.1 52.2 -0.2 0.6 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 -0.5 1.1 -1.0 0.3 50.4 55.2 -0.2 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -0.8 0.9 -0.7 0.1 49.2 53.9 -0.4 0.9 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 -1.8 -0.4 -0.8 0.4 53.3 57.0 -1.5 -0.6 0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 -0.9 0.7 -1.2 0.5 51.6 57.1 -0.2 0.6 1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -0.4 1.4 0.0 0.0 47.8 53.5 0.3 1.5 2.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 -0.2 1.1 -0.4 0.0 46.6 51.4 0.1 1.2 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.3 -1.1 0.3 49.8 55.0 0.2 1.3 2.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -0.5 0.8 1.3 0.3 55.2 54.1 -0.3 0.6 2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 -2.6 -0.2 -1.5 0.5 50.8 56.5 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 -0.3 0.6 1.3 0.1 51.6 53.4 -0.3 0.6 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -1.8 -2.7 -2.8 0.8 53.3 59.1 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 -0.9 0.1 0.8 0.0 47.4 51.9 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -0.9 0.3 1.3 0.1 52.4 53.2 -0.3 0.2 1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 -1.0 0.3 1.1 0.0 49.0 53.1 -0.4 0.3 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 -1.1 0.5 -0.1 0.1 48.1 54.0 -0.1 0.6 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 49.5 52.9 -0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 1.5 0.9 -0.9 0.6 55.4 59.6 -0.3 0.4 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 -0.5 0.8 0.9 0.2 52.5 53.4 0.3 0.7 1.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 47.0 52.2 -1.3 -0.4 -0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 0.0 -2.3 -2.0 0.6 52.2 57.6 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -0.5 0.6 1.4 0.2 52.5 53.9 -0.2 0.5 1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------