***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.03.2013.-10.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 46 54 100 9999.0 0.0 2.8 1.7 70.3 67.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 0.9 1.7 2.3 1.3 64.9 64.6 -0.8 0.6 1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 3.2 4.2 2.4 1.5 66.9 65.7 1.2 3.0 4.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 -1.7 -0.8 0.8 2.0 71.3 68.9 -5.1 -3.5 -1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -0.1 1.0 1.1 2.1 70.8 68.8 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 0.2 0.5 -0.5 2.3 75.2 71.5 -2.9 -0.9 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 1.2 1.9 2.3 1.4 64.0 65.0 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -4.7 -4.1 0.0 2.4 73.9 70.3 -8.2 -5.9 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 1.6 2.9 1.6 2.0 69.9 67.8 -0.5 1.2 2.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 2.1 2.3 0.5 2.3 72.2 69.1 -0.8 0.8 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 1.7 2.0 0.8 2.1 71.4 68.8 -0.8 0.3 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 0.5 0.5 0.6 2.2 72.6 69.6 -2.2 -0.4 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 1.6 1.7 0.2 2.3 73.7 70.6 -1.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 1.6 2.9 1.2 1.5 67.3 64.6 0.1 1.2 2.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 1.2 3.0 1.1 1.8 69.2 66.9 -0.5 0.8 2.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 2.3 2.8 0.5 2.1 71.9 69.4 -0.3 0.5 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 1.6 2.4 2.1 1.2 64.6 62.9 -0.4 1.2 2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 71.7 69.8 -2.7 -1.4 -0.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 1.0 2.1 2.3 1.3 65.8 64.4 -0.6 0.6 2.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -2.1 -1.5 -1.4 2.8 73.7 72.0 -7.1 -4.0 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 1.0 1.2 2.3 1.8 69.4 67.4 -0.4 0.5 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 1.4 2.3 2.1 1.1 66.1 62.5 -0.6 1.0 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 0.6 1.3 2.1 1.3 67.4 64.1 -0.9 0.2 1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 0.8 2.2 1.2 1.8 68.9 66.3 -0.8 0.3 1.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.0 73.1 68.6 0.0 0.7 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 1.6 2.1 0.3 2.1 75.3 71.0 -1.5 -0.1 1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 1.9 2.6 2.2 1.8 71.8 67.6 -0.5 0.7 2.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 0.7 1.6 1.0 2.0 70.2 68.1 -2.0 -1.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 2.7 72.9 71.2 -3.7 -1.6 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 1.4 2.4 2.4 1.4 66.2 65.4 -0.4 1.1 2.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------