***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 21.02.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.02.2013.-03.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 2.9 2.7 78.0 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 1.2 1.3 2.4 2.2 71.2 72.5 -2.2 -0.8 0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 3.3 4.0 2.5 2.5 74.4 74.5 0.3 1.1 3.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 3.0 77.9 78.2 -5.1 -4.3 -1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 0.3 1.2 1.2 2.9 79.3 77.8 -2.7 -1.5 0.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 0.5 1.7 -0.4 3.6 87.2 84.3 -4.6 -1.7 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 1.3 2.0 2.5 2.3 73.8 73.7 -2.4 -0.3 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 -5.1 -4.2 -0.4 3.3 76.3 75.6 -8.3 -6.8 -4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 1.7 2.5 1.6 2.9 78.9 77.9 -2.0 -0.1 1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 0.8 1.5 0.2 3.2 73.8 74.5 -1.9 -0.7 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 1.1 1.9 1.0 3.1 81.7 78.5 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 0.3 1.4 0.4 3.0 78.3 75.8 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 1.3 2.0 0.5 3.0 77.7 75.8 -2.0 -0.7 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 0.6 1.4 0.6 2.2 64.6 66.1 -1.9 0.3 1.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 1.7 2.2 1.5 3.0 78.8 77.9 -2.1 -0.2 1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 2.5 3.2 0.7 3.0 80.0 78.1 -1.5 0.0 1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.1 69.8 70.1 -2.2 -0.4 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 3.2 65.8 70.0 -3.8 -2.6 -0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.2 71.4 72.4 -2.1 -0.6 0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 -4.9 -2.8 -2.6 3.0 63.5 68.2 -8.3 -5.3 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 0.9 1.8 2.4 2.7 79.5 76.6 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 -0.2 0.9 1.8 1.8 66.5 67.0 -2.2 -0.6 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.6 1.9 2.2 71.5 72.5 -2.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 0.9 0.4 0.8 2.7 66.3 69.5 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 1.0 1.7 2.0 3.1 82.8 80.6 -2.2 -1.3 0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 1.1 1.3 0.0 2.7 73.8 73.5 -2.4 0.1 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 1.7 2.4 2.5 2.9 78.9 78.2 -1.9 -0.5 2.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 0.1 0.8 1.0 2.9 76.4 76.6 -3.9 -2.6 -0.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4 3.4 66.8 71.3 -4.6 -2.9 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 1.7 2.5 2.6 2.4 74.1 74.2 -2.2 -0.4 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------