***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.02.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2020.-22.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 14.7 21.0 43.0 84.6 42.3 40.6 17.3 21.6 41.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 18.1 16.2 38.8 86.2 40.4 41.5 13.9 28.1 31.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 21.2 28.5 43.4 85.2 42.5 40.8 22.1 32.0 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.0 44.8 75.6 36.1 34.8 26.7 40.2 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 24.5 31.3 48.3 84.2 40.6 39.2 30.6 39.0 51.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 23.7 28.9 53.2 97.0 48.5 47.6 22.9 33.6 47.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 17.0 22.6 39.0 88.4 44.0 43.3 15.7 28.5 35.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 51.3 66.0 58.1 94.5 46.8 44.8 54.3 71.0 78.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 23.7 29.6 50.8 88.2 43.3 41.0 23.8 33.7 45.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 29.4 37.2 57.4 93.3 47.2 43.9 29.4 39.2 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 25.3 29.0 50.0 89.1 44.5 42.2 24.3 31.1 43.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 27.1 35.7 52.0 93.8 46.0 44.7 30.7 37.2 44.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 27.1 38.2 54.4 94.5 48.7 46.0 27.9 39.2 47.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 56.4 46.5 59.5 93.6 46.4 45.0 38.5 48.3 69.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 13.7 17.3 38.0 68.6 34.5 32.9 16.1 33.8 63.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 25.0 33.4 49.6 88.6 43.7 42.5 27.4 34.2 40.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.1 20.2 38.0 87.0 43.7 42.6 16.9 22.0 39.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 41.6 38.1 62.4 97.8 53.2 47.1 29.3 35.7 43.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 21.6 27.8 40.3 85.9 40.9 41.0 19.2 33.6 40.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 26.0 37.8 73.2 96.8 52.1 47.2 27.2 37.2 46.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 22.2 22.7 47.3 86.6 41.6 40.6 18.3 31.6 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 16.1 21.9 40.0 85.4 43.1 40.9 18.1 24.5 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 19.8 28.1 44.3 87.8 44.0 42.2 18.9 30.1 39.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 29.9 44.0 55.9 93.8 48.7 45.1 36.3 44.8 65.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 16.9 19.9 47.8 82.2 38.1 38.9 17.1 27.4 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 24.5 32.5 52.8 93.3 45.8 44.2 24.2 35.2 43.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 15.3 21.4 46.0 85.6 41.7 41.2 16.8 25.8 46.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 15.7 19.6 42.6 75.4 37.1 35.5 17.3 24.3 52.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 67.1 63.9 67.4 100.5 55.3 49.3 47.7 63.3 69.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.2 30.0 39.7 85.5 41.5 41.3 13.7 35.2 41.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------